“There is zero doubt that the Signature Edition of the Tesla Model S will achieve its stated 300-mile range, though some people may get less if they don’t drive the car properly.” Jerome Guillen, the program director for the Model S, was speaking from Tesla’s stand at the Detroit Auto Show. With the Model X crossover SUV (which sits on the Model S platform) being readied for its first public showing February 9, and the Roadster temporarily discontinued, the Model S—now in crash testing and headed for the market in the middle of the year—is not only Tesla’s flagship, it’s the brash EV company’s whole car sales game plan for 2012.

Guillen spent 10 years at Daimler and became director of its global business innovations unit, so it means something when he says that the Model S exhibits “the most innovation you will ever see in a car.” What about the S-Class Benz? But Guillen’s move to Tesla was amicable and something of an in-house transfer, considering the German company’s investment.

With his finger, Guillen traces the seven-foot long bright molding that follows the Model S’s roofline. The molding has no cut line at the door openings, which isn’t the most momentous thing in the world but it’s typical of the obsessive attention to detail going into the Model S.

Here Comes a Hit

I predict that the Model S will be a huge hit, because of the value proposition it presents. Tesla has 8,000 reservations, and its sales in the early years will probably depend on how many it can make. In a recent conference call, CEO Elon Musk predicted that the company will beat a third-quarter 2012 delivery projection, and will manufacture at least 20,000 Model S cars during 2013, maybe just 5,000 in 2012. It may well, but that volume is production-dependent.

But John Gartner, research director at Pike Research, cautions that the luxury car market isn't a huge one, and that no matter how good the car is it probably won't sell as well as the more affordable Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf. But prestige models (the kind that populate buff books like Car and Driver and Road and Track) will drive buyers to the more affordable Model X, and its successor--reportedly a $30,000 compact.

The Model S is a five-passenger battery sedan (seven if you count the two children’s jump seats) that looks and performs (zero to 60 in less than six seconds) like a Maserati Quattroporte but is much cheaper and also nicer to Mother Nature. It comes standard with a nicely appointed interior featuring a 17-inch touchscreen that can be optimized by its owner to handle most routine tasks.

Model S by the Numbers

The base car, with a 40-kilowatt-hour battery pack and 160-mile range, starts at $57,400 (or $49,900 with the $7,500 federal income tax credit. With a 60-kWh pack ($59,900) range jumps to 230 miles, and with a whopper of an 85-kWh battery its $69,900 and 300 miles—definitely enough to banish range anxiety. Top speed is 110 to 130 mph, depending on model.

You can spend more on a Model S. For $84,900 affluent buyers can gild the lily with an upscale interior, and fancier suspension and wheels. The package includes “Nappa leather with Alcantra accents and carbon fiber décor.” For bragging rights, zero to 60 time in the “Performance” model drops to 4.4 seconds from 5.6. Tesla did the same thing with the sport version of the Roadster—it’s a time-proven way to bring extra revenue into auto companies.

The first 1,000 cars will be $87,900 Signature models, which include the big battery as standard. The larger pack fits into the same under-the-car space as the smaller versions, but it’s heavier so it will be interesting to see how handling is affected. Tesla touts the performance advantage of the car’s low center of gravity in the new video here:

2012: The Year of Model S from Tesla Motors on Vimeo.

Finally, there’s the $97,900 “Signature Performance” with the best of everything, including that big battery. So the Model S does creep up into Roadster territory, but the price of entry is lower.

Performance Expectations

I’ve ridden in, but haven’t driven the Model S, so can’t say whether it delivers on its performance promise. But I’m optimistic. So is Sam Jaffe, an analyst with IDC Energy Insights. “It’s a Lexus-style car, so a small proportion of the public is capable of buying it,” he said. “But for that segment it will be a very appealing vehicle—we’re likely to see some migration from Lexus and Acura and other luxury companies.”

Jaffe, who hasn’t driven the S either, said the word on the street is that the car offers “a tremendously satisfying and appealing ride. It’s also the first electric car on the market to offer something unique and special.” In other words, it was designed from the ground up as an EV, not a conversion.

Tesla's star quality has earned it a huge amount of free publicity over the years, but does the brand now resonate with the general public? Tesla’s challenge, says Jack Nerad, an analyst with Kelley Blue Book, is “convincing a relatively large number of people that the Model S is worth the substantial premium they will pay for it versus a conventional sedan of similar size. That is a difficult enough task for an established manufacturer with a well-known name, but Tesla Motors does not have nearly the name recognition of the mainstream brands. This requires a second leap-of-faith for potential buyers. This is not to say that Tesla Motors can’t accomplish its goals, but the task could be more difficult than the company imagines.”

Tesla’s Franz von Holzhausen, who designed the S, isn't worried about that hurdle. He described the car's value to buyers this way in a recent company interview: “Model S is a revolutionary vehicle: not only due to its electric propulsion, but also in that its engineering and design go hand-in-hand. We have designed Model S from the ground up as an EV. The unique powertrain integration allows for an unprecedented package that is both rigid and incredibly safe. We set out to redefine the electric car, but with room for seven passengers and more functional storage space than any sedan on the market.”

Tesla’s stock fell 20 percent following the news that two key employees, chief engineer Peter Rawlinson and vehicle and chassis man Nick Sampson, had abruptly left the company. But Musk offered reassurance—Rawlinson left for personal reasons and Sampson was fired. Jaffe points out that in any case Model S engineering is done—the company’s focus has switched to actually producing the car. The stock was back up over $30 last time I checked.

In a recent interview, I asked former GM vice chairman Bob Lutz if there were any green cars he particularly liked. He had one. “The Tesla Model S is a beautiful car, nicely styled by the guy [Fritz von Holzhausen] who designed the Pontiac Solstice—in my view, one of the all-time great designs. Sometimes I ask myself if I don’t want one. Although if you want 300-mile range and all the extras, the Model S could be expensive.”

Lutz added, “I think the Model S looks very promising. Elon Musk and his team realize that people buy cars based on style. No one will buy an electric car that looks like a Dorkmobile. If it’s beautiful and it does what people say it’s going to do, they’ll pay the price. I predict the Tesla Model S will be hugely successful with wealthier Americans.”

Lutz wants one, that’s something for a guy who, presumably, already has a Chevrolet Volt in his garage. I want one, too, but first I’d need to afford the Lexus I’d be trading in.