Study: Plug-ins Will Surpass Hybrids in U.K. by 2020

According to a study by Glass’s Information Services Ltd., electric vehicles are poised to make up 11 percent of the British auto market by 2020, slightly more than the 10 percent figure expected for hybrids. The projection comes in the wake of news that the U.K. is likely to move forward with its Plugged-in Places program, which will provide funding to install thousands of charging stations throughout Britain. The country also recently approved an electric vehicle subsidy program that would discount the consumer cost of plug-ins by as much as £5,000, though total funding for the program was cut by more than 80 percent.

Of course, ten-year projections aren't exactly money in the bank, but they do give us an opportunity to contrast the possible trajectories of different car markets around the world. In the United States, even though the federal government currently offers a $7,500 per vehicle plug-in car rebate, most analysts predict that hybrids will continue to easily beat out EVs for the foreseeable future. Both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, among others, predict that electrics will only reach about five percent market penetration in the U.S. by 2020, with hybrids making up as much as 20 percent of vehicle sales.

Meanwhile, Pike Research projects that China will lead the U.S. in total electric vehicle sales for most of the next decade, while trailing in hybrids. The aforementioned GIS study has Germany beating out everyone, with with 26 percent hybrid and electric vehicle sales by 2020, and France and Italy producing numbers similar to Britain's. The breakdowns may be different, but looking at all of these numbers together, you might say that it's a reachable goal for the world's wealthiest countries to shoot for 20 to 25 percent "green" vehicle sales by 2020.