I don't believe that Fisker or Tesla will survive, either, but I don't think that alone makes my assessment a political one. If I were lobbying against the subsidies that prop them up, that would be political. Of course in the debate it was political.
Outside of politics, though, I just don't expect to ever see batteries become good enough to allow pure BEV's replace a significant portion of the cars in use today. I do see electric cars eventually becoming dominant... just not with batteries. The way I see it, electric vehicles have been successful for over 100 years now as subways and trains. These vehicles draw power directly from the grid as it is generated, instead of cycling it through a battery. Trying to put all of their energy needs through a battery would greatly increase their expense. The delivery of the power to every inch of electrified rail right-of-way is more effective and practical. Don't let the fact that US passenger rail is subsidized obscure this fact. There is at least on electric freight railroad operating (completely unsubsidized, I believe,) and at a profit. It hauls ore somewhere in Scandanavia. (The electric locomotives that pull it are about the most horsepower multiple units in service, according to Wikipedia.)
I'm not trying to be controversial here. It's obvious that most everybody who reads or posts here is very much in favor of electric cars. I think though, that most everybody would be most pleased if electric cars were successful with or without batteries, as long as they manage without petroleum. I see this as the eventual future... electric cars with batteries used only to cover short distances to and from the electrified roads.
Actually I am working hard on a concept kind of like this that, if it proves successful, should make everybody here very pleased. In my position, it is frustrating (at times,) to work from a shoestring budget out of my own pocket while witnessing the copius governement support for these (in my opinion,) less viable options. Oh well. I did managed to discover a funding oppurtunity, NYSERDA PON 2584, and my prototype construction proposal is one of only 33 applications submitted. Six more weeks to wait before I find out if my project will be awarded the twelve thousand dollars requested. This program has three million dollars available, and any proposal to build a prototype is elegible for up to half a million.
I would say good luck with your battery electric cars if I believed in them, but just because I don't doesn't mean I don't wish you all good luck in getting to the electric transportation future that you seek. (I'm just trying to get us there the way that looks most viable to me.)
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