Refuting The BBC's Claims That EVs Are Costlier Than Gas Cars In The Long Run

Nick Chambers · Nick Chambers · 1 year ago

As many of you are likely aware, earlier this week the BBC came out with a report that strongly suggested electric cars would be more expensive to operate than gas cars in the long run, mostly because they would depreciate (lose their resale value) much more quickly than gas cars. That article has generated a lot of debate on the internet, but I stayed away from it initially because it seemed like such a strange report due to the fact that it's anybody's guess what kind of resale value EVs will have.

So it was refreshing to find out that today, British TV personality and EV enthusiast Robert Llewellyn, released a perfectly salient counterpoint to the BBC article in his Fully Charged video series (you can watch the whole video below).

As Llewellyn points out, Mitsubishi said the i-MiEV "could" depreciate in value quicker than a petrol vehicle. "They don't know, because they haven't made very many of them, and they haven't sold any of them, and no one has bought a second-hand one," added Llewellyn. "It could also be the case, with just as much likelihood, that the resale value of [the i-MiEV] is way, way higher, because there is so much less to go wrong on them." So, why did the BBC produce this report without bringing up that all-important fact?

"It is peculiar that there is a very, very noticeable anti-electric car bias within the BBC and it manifests itself in many different places," said Llewellyn. But Llewellyn is perplexed about what is based on. The biggest part of the calculations the BBC did to tell you that driving an electric car in the long run will cost you more than a gas car is the resale value, but that value is based on a complete guess.

As Llewellyn remarked, "Who knows what a car like this will sell for in 5 or 10 years time?," adding there are two things that are for sure in the next 10 years: fossil fuels will get rarer and batteries will get smaller, cheaper and lighter and will last longer. When considering those factors, the guess at the resale value of an EV in 5 or 10 years becomes much more positive, but the BBC didn't take those factors into consideration. "They were judging it on the current costs of the current batteries and the current costs of fossil fuels," said Llewellyn. "So the total entirety of that argument is completely spurious."

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Fully Charged takes on the BBC's "anti-electric car bias."

"What essentially has happened is that Mitsubishi has said to the press 'Our car is a bit rubbish, we don't think anyone should buy them because they won't be worth anything after a few years and we'll lose loads of money and our car isn't as good as a Fiat'," concluded Llewellyn. "Have you ever heard of a motor manufacturer saying anything like that? The only reason they are saying anything like that is to try and... undermine the enormous success of the LEAF."

Llewellyn thinks Mitsubishi is saying that 'Our car is rubbish and so is theirs' because Nissan is so far out ahead of Mitsubishi—only a tiny percent of their manufacturing produces EVs and they have no plans to ramp up like Nissan—that it appears the company is trying to combat Nissan by reducing the appeal of a competing product. But the reason why the BBC is so intent on calling electric cars worthless is still a mystery.

Comments

· darelldd · 1 year ago

Reminds me a tiny bit of the "study" that showed that a Hummer was more environmentally friendly than the Prius. Everything was predicated on a 300k mile life of a Hummer (you, know, a REAL car) and just 100k miles for a Prius (so you throw it away at that point, and have to buy three of them to get the same life as the one Hummer).

After reading and watching the EV stuff presented here... I'm still at a loss...

· Nick Chambers · 1 year ago

Darrell, it's one of those things that the motivations just escape me. The BBC is a publicly funded organization without any ties to the oil industry or auto manufacturers. What concerns me is that, because of that, we may just be looking at a reflection of society's attitude as a whole at this point. For so long we've had everybody tell us how bad EVs are that it may have just sunk in... kind of like the stigma that diesels still have in this country.

· Tom Moloughney · 1 year ago

Nick: Or..... all of us here are wrong? Na, but it is puzzling like you and Mr Llewellyn point out. By the way, I love his video series.

· evnow (not verified) · 1 year ago

There is a way to calculate value in 3 years using Leaf lease residual. I'll run some numbers ...

· PSYCHOGUN (not verified) · 1 year ago

Frankly, I question the BBC's source of this data. While they may have gotten the information from Mitsubishi, I beg the question if the author purposely misinterpreted the numbers (wouldn't be the first time).
Furthermore, Llewellyn's conclusion that Mitsubishi is trying to market their vehicle by saying it's rubbish and by extension the Leaf is rubbish is not only far-fetched (and reeking with brand-bias), but also baseless and highly illogical.

· Ogden Lafaye (not verified) · 1 year ago

People are not cognizant of the fact that pure electric driven vehicles are quite simple, easy to design, contain very few parts and are extremely long-lived.

I expect electric vehicles will last a very long time. I can't say the same for the batteries but with projected lifetimes of 10 years and more, I imagine that battery replacement will not affect the huge savings in the very very long run. A directly driven (motor in wheel) electric car is the most efficient.

The initial cost of a pure electric vehicle is predicated on the cost of the batteries. As more and more electrics hit the streets, this cost will come down considerably. In addition, there are companies like China Sun Group High Tech (CSGI) that have proven Lithium IRON Phosphate battery technology that far exceeds Lithium Ion in longevity yet can be produced at a significantly lower cost. This company is even now expanding their plant facilities for a production run of these batteries.

Battery technology is rapidly improving and many are the new designs being proposed, investigated, improved and critiqued by the battery development community. I expect amazing progress in the next ten years.

· Ogden Lafaye (not verified) · 1 year ago

CSGH...correction China Sun Group High Tech...a company listed on an American stock exchange and predominately owned by members of a Chinese family and insiders (employees and associates) They have been suppliers of high quality battery components for many years and have been developing their Lithium IRON Phosphate battery for some time now. This battery was sent out to 20 consumer companies for evaluation last year and so far the resultant news has been very positive.

· indyflick (not verified) · 1 year ago

Of course these sorts of stories concern me and actually anger me. However, in my experience I've found that typically these stories reflect more on the news outlet than the technology or product being reported on. The news outlets have a strategy which takes bigger news and attempts to get at least three news cycles from it over time. First, they get the original announcement. Second, they find any issue or issues and bash it (such as this report). Third they either cover its failure or "rise from the ashes". If it fails they report that, "well we reported on the flaws previously" and if you read our reporting, you knew it would fail. Whereas if it succeeds their message is instead, "all the flaws we pointed out have been resolved and thanks to us the product is a success!".

You actually see this sort of three step reporting all the time, once you are aware of it. I've noticed that the bigger the story the quicker they'll jump to phase 2. I think the reason for that is that their report will stand out from the crowd still reporting on phase 1 (the original announcement).

· ex-EV1 driver · 1 year ago

No ICE company wants EVs anymore than Kodak wanted digital cameras or Western Union wanted the telephone. EV development will be horrible to short-term profits and obsolete most of the current company. We saw it with Ford, GM, Chrysler, Nissan, Honda, and Toyota in the '90's. Nothing has changed except an expository movie and a bunch of little sports cars zipping around, schooling Porsches and Ferrarris at red lights.
We've just got to get the cars on the road so people can experience reality, not just listen to a bunch of biased, yet unprovable hyperbole.

· chacham (not verified) · 1 year ago

I have no idea why BBC came to the conclusions that they did but I have some questions:
1 - Since someone who is buying a 3 year old car will most likely be facing a battery replacement down the road, wouldn't they balk?
2 - When it is time to replace the battery, will the owner be able replace it with a state of the art battery, or will they need to use the same battery that was in the original model?
3- Is the technology proprietary and the owner must purchase a replacement from the vehicle manufacturer or will you be able to purchase an after market battery which may be superior to the manufacturer's original battery?
Depending on how some of these questions are answered, it is possible that the value of the car may actually increase instead of decrease. Here is why:
Suppose you buy the Leaf for 32K now and hold on to it for 5 years. The battery has an 8 year warranty on it, so it's good for another three years. Now, we are 5 years out and new technology allows for a superior battery to be installed for the same price as the original battery. The seller can sell car with the residual value of current warranty. But since a replacement battery would provide better mileage, and time between charges, the overall vehicle is worth more.
There is only one thing that will stand in the way of EV cars. Inertia. If there will be an infrastructure build-out with Grid, and charging stations in support to support electric vehicles, EVs will be successful. Otherwise, it won't.

· darelldd · 1 year ago

>> If there will be an infrastructure build-out with Grid, and charging stations in support to support electric vehicles, EVs will be successful. Otherwise, it won't.

Depending on how you measure "successful" - I contend that public charging stations are not required for EVs to succeed. The VAST majority of EV charging is done at home. Yes, I realize this doesn't work for everybody - nothing does. But there are millions of people for whom an EV works just as well with or without access to public charging.

And yes, the grid will change. Just like it has to occomadate millions of more homes with pools and AC over the years. And EVs have the potential to make the grid MUCH more efficient by balancing the load. I actually believe that the grid needs EVs way more than EVs need the grid. But that's a whole 'nuther discussion.

· Ogden Lafaye (not verified) · 1 year ago

darelldd, Quite correct...the grid needs EVs

I do believe that workplaces will have charging stations and of course up scale businesses will offer them to customers.

Quick charge batteries are on the horizon so there will be charging stations strategically placed out side of large cities. The city government-owned parking facilities may also see benefits...some people commute to ground transportation serving a city.

One thing for certain: electrics are here to stay and one hell of a lot of people will find an EV suits their needs to a T.

My brother-in-law had an EV built into a Porsche replica/fiberglass kit and has been using it for his daily commute for years. He had ONE problem with the motor, otherwise it has been trouble free.

· SageBrush · 1 year ago

If half the cost of an EV is battery that has a 10 year lifespan, then it is not much of a stretch to imagine EVs having high depreciation. More troubling to me for early adopters is that future battery tech will not be compatible with replacement down the road --- assuming the labor for battery replacement is not by itself too expensive to consider.

I personally am not interested in the Volt. One of the many reasons is that the battery does not appear accessible for replacement. I imagine its placement was for weight distribution, but if, as I suspect, the placement turns the Volt into a throw-away car when the battery is finished the buyers are going to have a rude awakening.

· ex-EV1 driver · 1 year ago

@SageBrush,
Are you implying that you don't think the Volt's batteries will be replaceable? I highly doubt that. I suspect the "T" shaped battery mount is just a vestige from the old EV1 days when the "T" shape was an early attempt to enable an easily swappable battery pack before fast charging was fully developed. The thought back then was supposedly to just slide the pack out the back of the car.
I'm quite sure that the Volt battery will be easily replaceable for maintenance or at end of life.

· darelldd · 1 year ago

It absolutely will be (relatively) easily removable. It would be more difficult to make the car so that it was HARD to get at the battery.

· JJ (not verified) · 1 year ago

Let's see... no oil changes ever, no tranny fluid changes,
no air filter to change, less brake wear, no oxygen sensors to replace, no catholic converters to replace, no muffler to replace,
no emissions tests, no gas tank to rust and replace,
no drive train belt to change, no coolant to change,
no coolant pump to break, etc, etc etc.

It's a no brainer for me: EV is cheaper!

· SageBrush · 1 year ago

Ex-EV1,

Yeahh, I'm guessing that as a practical matter, battery replacement will not be chosen by most people. I come to this conclusion for a variety of reasons, some more guesswork and fuzzy extrapolations than others. Here is my laundry list, since my earlier post was apparently not too clear:

1. A (relatively) dinky, easily accessible Prius traction battery has over $1000 labor costs for replacement at the dealer. I extrapolate that the Chevy dealer will charge quite a bit more.

2. The tech is changing rapidly. Unless the car sells in large volumes before the tech changes and lightly used batteries come on to the market like the Prius, the Volt is going to have ONE source for the next battey: your local friendly Chevy dealer. Low volume, dealer pricing = *high* price tag

3. For lack of a more descriptive term, tech depreciation: In six years (~ 100k miles say) the EV is going to have pronounced tech advancements in size/weight/performance/cost, making the battery replacement cost look less attractive. Perhaps computer repair is a good analogy: sure, a failed part can be bought, but most people opt to spend more and upgrade the entire machine.

· TechExplorer · 1 year ago

I think Nissan @ one time was thinking of doing Hot Swap of Battery Packs,Ex.) on trip battery runs low drop by appointed swap station 2 to 3 min later battery replaced with fresh charged Battery.The Leaf with its battery down low under seats and under car has the capability to date.Nissan has decided to not lease Battery packs,so not pushing this anymore.

· Nick Chambers · 1 year ago

TechExplorer, as a larger group the Renault-Nissan Alliance is devoting some research energy to the battery swapping venture. Renault has partnered extensively with Better Place in Israel and will be providing several hundred thousand battery swap capable EVs for the Better Place program in that country. You can read more about Nissan's stance on battery swapping here:

http://gas2.org/2009/11/17/nissan-global-ev-chief-battery-swapping-likel...

· TechExplorer · 1 year ago

Nick,Thanks for the info. I agree with the article as to date.But think it could be just one piece of the Larger pie to come.

· ex-EV1 driver · 1 year ago

@Sagebrush,
You're right dealer prices tend to be way above the average local garage and it will be a while before EV prices fall to commodity levels. Remember that the auto industry has been shaving pennies off of the cost of the ICE for over a century.

· SageBrush · 1 year ago

I would not presume retail commodity pricing for auto batteries, given the high likelihood that Li-x chemistries will change, packaging will change, and electrical requirements will change.

Commodity pricing for the manufacturer pumping out new cars ? Absolutely. For the guy with an older EV looking for a deprecated by 2 generations battery ? I don't think so.

· SageBrush · 1 year ago

Thanks for the reminder Nick. Although my arguments against a future where battery replacement is cheap are generalizable to any manufacturer, some cars will be more of a problem than others. Earlier I had singled out the GM Volt as my vote for the car least likely to garner battery replacement.

[snarky comment]Planned obsolescence is in the GM DNA [/sc]

· ex-EV1 driver · 1 year ago

@SageBrush,
Good points about how future battery prices are so critical to the economies of automobiles. You might want to look at Tesla's approach to battery design, where they start out with standard commodity 18650 cells that are made primarily for the laptop computer industry. Tesla simply packages them for use in EVs. This approach makes a lot of sense since the basic ingredients aren't available to anyone and they have a lot of sources to draw from.
Granted, the large automakers may choose to make proprietary designs in order to control the market. Will they be able to compete economically with manufacturers who choose to use standard batteries? If existing starter batteries are any indication, it would appear that the gearheads in the auto industry do not want to go the proprietary route. Of course batteries don't dominate an ICV's price or design like it does an EV's.

· Ogden Lafaye (not verified) · 1 year ago

Swappable battery plans are destined to fail due to human nature, rapidly improving battery technologies and the surety that they will be left in the dust. This plan entails "locking in" the owner/vehicle type forever and ever. In ten years you find yourself still stuck and the battery swap stations few and far between.

· RIchard (not verified) · 1 year ago

It's worth noting that BBC is also a laggard in coverage on climate change and has been reluctant to point to man-made emissions as a factor in phenomena like the increased severity of floods (Pakistan), droughts (Australia, US Southwest, etc.). The deeper psychology may be that these people value snarky-stupid journalistic "tit for tat" faux debates more than the idea of objective fact, and they are uncomfortable with the notion that they should be allied with climate science as objective fact. That would then impart on them a moral obligation to ring alarm bells, which they do not want to do, because they feel it would implicate their "neutrality" and make them "take sides." This is a profound psychological and structural problem that only "liberal" and "mainstream" media seem to have. The folks on the right lie all day, but the folks in the middle aren't willing to separate fact from lies, and simply tell the truth. Until BBC people look into their soul and decide to change, we will have a major problem on our hands.

· Ogden Lafaye (not verified) · 1 year ago

The magnitude of the LIE seems to escape you. Business, Religion and Government cannot exist without the LIE. It isn't right or left or middle class, it is just about everything in your life. The religious are just a lot sounder asleep than the rest of us.

· Ogden Lafaye (not verified) · 1 year ago

Nick, battery swapping when they are worn out is understandable...but swapping because the battery is discharged? Get a grip son.

· Nick Chambers · 1 year ago

Ogden, I'm seriously about to cut you off. Your needless attacks on personal character are old and you are, at this point, adding almost nothing to the conversation. You've become a blight on PluginCars.com. This is about the 6th or 7th time I've reasonably asked you to stop.

As for your comment, I don't see what I've said makes you think that I support battery swapping as a business model. In fact, I've been one of the most critical opponents of it. If you actually read anything and did some research outside of your own pre-judged conclusions you might have found that out. In fact, if you did something as simple as followed the link in my comment above, you might have read the part where I say:

"That answer was the first time I’ve heard anyone at a high level within a major manufacturer who is planning on marketing and selling electric cars say that they don’t think the battery swapping model will work on a large scale in the U.S.—and I have to say I agree whole-heartedly."

· Ogden Lafaye (not verified) · 1 year ago

Well Nick, being thin-skinned is convenient for a blogger eh?

Lots of VOLT psychophants out there son.

· Ogden Lafaye (not verified) · 1 year ago

sycophants

· darelldd · 1 year ago

If it weren't so tragic, I'd have to laugh. Somebody says "red" and Ogden replies, "No, it's a duck!" Not all of us are on the same page, but I'm not sure Ogden is even in the right library. I don't mean for this to be a personal attack... I just don't know how to deal with somebody who makes no sense.

This thread has NOTHING to do with the Volt. Why the sycophant comment, exactly? Just because it needs to be said 14 times per day?

This thread (nor Nick's response) has anything to do with anybody having thick skin.

Duck!

· Anonymous (not verified) · 1 year ago

wouldnt you have to factor in costs to work on the vehicle? I didn't see that mentioned anywhere.. Battery replacement cost, electric system repair costs, etc..
These cars would contain far more computer components and also rare metals which as we've seen lately from China, will in fact go up in cost because the Chinese want to stick it to westerners.. Resale value alone is not a factor and its absurb to focus on that. Take ALL factors into consideration.. Shame on BBC and shame on you and others that focus on that alone.

· darelldd · 1 year ago

Shame on us for commenting on an article in a forum?

For the record, modern gasoline cars carry just as many "computer components" as EVs these days. We can discuss and debate all the other stuff - but probably best in a thread devoted to that, instead of this one that was originally about the resale value issue.

· Michael (not verified) · 1 year ago

It would be hard to say how an EV would compare to an ICE vehicle over the course of its life. There will be a point, however, where the replacement cost for the battery will be higher than the value of the car, and that point could come a lot sooner than an ICE wearing out. Gasoline engines often run 200K or more these days. Maintenance is not much either, with 100K spark plugs, 150K coolant, cam chains instead of belts, etc.

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