Pike Research's Updated Plug-In Forecast Puts Ford in Lead by 2016

In an update to its plug-in vehicle forecast, Pike Research last week said that the global plug-in vehicle segment will experience a 39 percent CAGR (compound annual growth rate) between 2012 and 2020. In contrast, the growth for hybrid vehicles will only be 6 percent during that period, while the overall automotive industry will experience a 2 percent CAGR.

In the next few years, Ford will lead the U.S. plug-in market market, while Volkswagen will take the lead position in the German EV market.

Pike Research suggests that the cumulative number of pure electric vehicles on roads across the world will hit 4.4 million vehicles by 2020, while the number of plug-in hybrids will only reach 3.4 million.

According to Pike, pure electric vehicles will lead in Europe and Asia, where rising fuel costs, increased availability, and more demand from residents of densely populated urban centers will make EVs more popular than plug-in hybrids at a global level.

In the U.S., where plug-in hybrids have already established a clear lead over pure EVs, Pike said that Ford's Energi lineup will position the automaker to capture 23 percent of the nation's plug-in market by 2020. General Motors will be in second place with 20 percent.

In Germany, Volkswagen will secure 25 percent of the plug-in market by 2020, while BMW is expected to take 15 percent. Renault, Europe's current plug-in vehicle leader, will slide down to only 12 percent of the plug-in market by 2020.