1 Million EVs by 2015 Too Modest and Building Credibility

Here is my math. Just considering Leaf & Volt (announced, but conservative the first 3 years).

2011 : 10+10=20K
2012 : 20+20=40K
2013 : 20+20=40K
2014 : 150+100=250K
2015 : 150+100=250K

Total of about 600K. Then we have Prius Plugin, Ford etc. 1 Million is an optimistic goal - but entirely achievable, esp. if the oil prices keep going up.

My colleague Alan Baum's forecast is cumulative US sales for the LEAF through 2015 at approximately 275,000, and cumulative US sales for the Volt at approximately 350,000. Nobody can predict the future, but Alan's forecasts are solid. And match EVNow's math. So, 600k from those two by 2015.

Now add Prius PHEV, Focus, Mitsu i, Smart ED, C-Max, Rav4EV, Fit EV, Toyota's city EV--plus Karma, Coda, BYD and whatever Tesla comes through with. Oh yea, you also have additional EVs from Nissan and GM. I'm not expecting any one of these to be huge, but when you add up 10 or more models over five years (if you go all the way until the end of 2015), it starts to look feasible.

And if it only reaches 900,000--or if it takes until 2016, who really cares? It's moving way in the right direction. The technology will be proven, and widely accepted as viable. Look how hybrids are not questioned anymore after years of doubts.

Two wildcards. In the favor of EV: A gas price spike in the next four years (naw, couldn't happen, right?) Against: Government incentives wane.

@Samie,
Here are even more folks who won't enjoy any benefits from EV proliferation:
The VPs in charge of the following divisions in the ICE car companies:
- ICE engines
- Transmissions
- Fuel Systems
- Exhaust Systems
- After market parts and service support

These VPs actually have a big vote on what the ICE companies make and don't make.

Other groups:
- Smog inspection stations and workers
- California (and other states') Air Resources Board
- Parking lot repavers (no oil drips requiring frequent repaving)

@Samie,
What about the core structure of the boardroom at an automobile manufacturer? Which of the suits sitting around the table would have their career and mansion in Bloomfield Hills enhanced by EVs? Which ones who had clawed their way to where they are on the ICE paradigm wouldn't?
I believe that the main anti-EV attitude probably comes from the car companies themselves. History has show that large entrenched businesses resist change. Witness Western Union, Baldwin Locomotove Works, Polaroid, IBM, Smith Corona, etc

Oil companies used to dead against EVs. Now they don't care - they know with Peak Oil around, EVs would be too small and too late to cause real pain for them. BTW, BP is part of promotors of EV Project - along with Nissan and Ecotality.

@dutchinchicago Shell quit algae bio-diesel because it is a sham. There is no way algae bio-diesel can come out of labs and be made in large quantities economically.

@EVNow, I'm not so sure about big oil being ambivalent toward the electric car. There's an old saying "keep your friends close and your enemies closer". So BP being a part of the EV Project doesn't surprise me. BP can keep in touch with what's going on and possibly influence it's direction to their benefit.

I agree, algae bio-diesel is a non-starter. There is simply not the area available to create the product in enough quantity. I think a better direction is using waste streams for feedstock with yeast or microbial fermentation. While the yield on yeast is less than algae, it requires far less area. Yeast also has the opportunity for small batch residential production of biofuels. There have been some major advancements in bio-butanol in the last several years.

Mike Jackson, of Auto Nation has been pushing for $4.00 gas as a means to get people to buy efficient cars. In his presentation, he shows a chart which traces the price of gas and the price of a Prius on the used market. I saw this presentation just after gas prices had gone from $2.50 to $4.00 and back to $2.50. There was a perfect fit between the two curves.

With the demand for gasoline increasing so quickly (as China and India develop) the price of gas has to go up, and people will look seriously at EVs and PHEVs.

Chevy is talking about 120,000 units for 2012. That's shocking (sorry) but not inconceivable. People could think: Better get one now before the tax credit runs out, before gas goes sky high, etc.

Hyundai is likely to offer a more efficient product that could ramp up to Accord and Camry levels quickly (200,000- 300,000 per year). see:http://www.plugincars.com/hyundai-says-expect-electric-car-soon-likely-plug-sonata-106693.html#comment-5014

I can't see much ability, unfortunately, for small competitors to hang in there against the big companies. (other than in niches like my own), but with Ford, Nissan, Chevy, Hyundai, Toyota, and VW all bringing viable products to market, the million vehicle mark seems attainable -- if not in 2015, then shortly thereafter.

The level of excitement is positively electric!

@Edward: We've been through this before on this site, but here goes. I won't dispute that an EV charged exclusively from coal-fired power plants might generate carbon emissions slightly worse than those of a Prius. However:
1. Coal comes from America, but most oil does not.
2. EV drivers can generally choose to power their cars with renewables, either through special programs with their utility companies or by installing solar PV.
3. The American power mix is expected to become cleaner over the coming years and decades.

Also, I'm not against more widespread adoption of vehicles like the Prius and Civic GX. That would be a very good thing! But that doesn't have to be mutually exclusive with promoting EVthes, which should become significantly cheaper as production volumes increase.

Hi Edward,

In areas of the country where coal dominates for generation, the very best hybrid (the Prius) and an electric vehicle are about the same in terms of the CO2 generated at the car or power plant. That alone means that an EV is an excellent transportation option, because even in the absolute worst case, an EV easily equals the very best car. The EV looks better yet when compared to an average car: it creates about half the CO2 emissions.

In other areas of the country, where generation is not so carbon-intense, the EV is even better. The trend toward less carbon-intense generation will continue, and EVs will continue to look better and better, in comparison to even the very most efficient ICE cars.

In addition, EV's allow us to use many different resources for power, rather than relying on just one. For many people, this alone is a huge motivator for buying an electric car. Gasoline prices will only rise as we run out of oil, and many people no longer want to be shackled to foreign nations for our transportation needs. The fact that running on electricity is so cheap is icing on the cake.

Your point re the NG Civic is a good one. We need to look at every option to reduce our dependence on oil. I certainly hope your dream of millions of people driving natural gas cars comes true. Natural gas cars, unlike electric cars, cannot operate without producing CO2 (they cannot be powered, for example, by solar, nuclear, hydro, wind and other truly clean energy sources). However, there is no question that they are better than the status quo, and a good stop-gap measure. It is unfortunate that NG filling stations in most cities have disappeared.

1,000,000 EVs would represent anything but a disaster. It would be a great first step to a brighter future. The potential disaster would be to do nothing, to stay the course on burning petroleum like there's no tomorrow.

Thanks for your input,
Ken

http://www.jsonline.com/business/115612729.html

"The Energy Department said that production plans announced by a variety of automakers mean that the industry is prepared to build more than 1.2 million electric vehicles by 2015."