Tesla stock was downgraded by Morgan Stanley despite the upcoming launch of the 2012 Tesla Model S.
As 2011 closes, electric car fans are wondering if the momentum established this past year can build into a breakthrough year for EVs in 2012. The signs are positive, with a dozen or more new plug-in models for consumers to consider in the next 12 months. But at least one indicator—namely the assessment of Tesla Motors by Wall Street—suggests that the expansion of exciting new electric car offerings might not mean wide popular acceptance of EVs in the coming year.
In other words, even stellar new products like the Tesla Model S might not be enough to satisfy common perception on Wall Street and Main Street.
Soon after going public in June 2010, Tesla Motors stock soared to $36 per share. Now, the California startup’s stock sits at $28. That slide made headlines earlier this month when Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, downgraded Tesla's stock by two notches from overweight to underweight. Jonas stated, “Tesla shareholders are banking on the near-dated success of the Model S launch and a longer-dated mass electric vehicle adoption. The former has appreciated handsomely while the latter is declining.”
In other words, Jonas is saying that individual models, like the Model S, will do well in the short-term—while lowering his forecast for “long-term EV penetration.” According to Morgan Stanley, sales of electric vehicles sales will not exceed 4.5 percent of total automotive sales by 2025, falling short of earlier predictions that set the penetration rate at 8.6 percent.
It’s hard to believe that Morgan Stanley’s crystal ball is clear enough to know what’s going to happen with EVs nearly 15 years from now. The picture for the immediate future is more certain. “Tesla has orchestrated a near-flawless execution through the Model S pre-production phase. We expect the Model S to launch on time in July,” Jonas said. But he warns that sales could “ramp up slower than consensus expectations as the company prioritizes delivery quality over quantity.”
In the past, a bright future for electric cars was denied because consumers couldn’t be assured of quality—but now it’s being held back because quality will be the priority? Sadly, 2012 could represent a new stage of EV denial where great cars “flawlessly” launched somehow add up to the same old conclusion: that consumers will never catch on to the benefits and excitement of driving an electric car.
Bradley Berman is the editor of PluginCars.com. Brad writes about alternative energy cars for The New York Times, Detroit Free Press, Reuters and other publications. He is quoted in national media outlets, such as CBS News, ABC News, CNBC, CBC, and MarketWatch. Mr. Berman is a tireless researcher of the green car market. He is the transportation editor at Home Power magazine.
· tterbo · 20 weeks ago
I'm not sure how people with $58k in disposable income in 2012, tick. Sure maybe it'll sell well. If it were $18k, I'd tick forward an opinion of yes, it'll sell like hot cakes.
But that's a foreign market to me. Maybe the wall street guy has $58k and has chosen not to buy the base model. If so, his opinion beats mine. ;)
· Anonymous (not verified) · 20 weeks ago
To my mind, Elon Musk is a genius and an advanced futurist for risking everything and developing such a beautiful, sleek, fast, functional vehicle that runs off electricity with a 300 mile range per charge, uses no petroleum, and discharges no exhaust. I gladly made my deposit and feel that the new Tesla S vehicle is worth it. This car and this technology is the future. I look forward to receiving my Tesla S in 2012, and I plan to invest in the company. I really don't care what Wall Street says. Look at how wrong WS has been up til now! We all need to reduce our dependency on fossil fuels and do what we can to lessen our eco footprint in the world. Anon
· Pawan Sharma (not verified) · 20 weeks ago
Of all the Electric cars that are due to come up in 2012, I am excited about Tesla S the most. Being an upstart, they are right to target the higher end of the market. When i see a price of $ 80,000 for the top end model that can travel beyond 500 kms on a charge, i look at rich people in delhi driving similiarly priced SUVs from BMW and mercedes, and all they do is drive in the city. even if a fraction of this clientele buys a tesla, the future of Electric cars in very bright indeed.
As for people like me, we are willing to be patient, my current petrol car gives me a mileage of 20 km per litre and it will last this decade easily. by the time i am in the market for another car, there will be an electric car ready for my budget. meanwhile i use delhi metro as much as possible and evangelize about electric cars to anyone that bothers to listen to me. meanwhile i am going to buy the smallest Solar panel i can afford and put it on my roof. Thanks to frequent blackouts, we already have an inverter and 2 lead acid batteries.
Thanks again, have a happy new year. and cheers to a better earth.
· jim1961 (not verified) · 20 weeks ago
I'd like to post a comment that's a little off the topic but in my mind it's related. A whole lot of negative press has been generated about solar energy since the bankruptcy of Solyndra but the rest of the solar industry is quite healthy. The third quarter of this year, when Solyndra went into bankruptcy, was the most successful quarter ever for solar. For more information check out the following article. http://cleantechnica.com/2011/12/23/u-s-solar-energy-in-2011/
· LarryC (not verified) · 20 weeks ago
Good points Brad.
At first Morgan Stanley's Mr. Jones had Tesla stock priced about twice as high as other analysts. Now, instead of first dropping to a neutal stance, and seeing how the roll-out goes, Mr. Jones whip-saws his clients by going all the way from overweight to underweight, literally overnight. Was this seemlngly knee jerk reation based on some miscue by Tesla? No, to quote Jones “Tesla has orchestrated a near-flawless execution through the Model S pre-production phase. We expect the Model S to launch on time in July,”. So how much credibility are we to assign to Morgan Stanley in the future? Not much.
Tesla wisely chose a modest number of cars to produce in 2012, just 5,000-6,000 out of that huge automated factory. And they have wisely put a priority on assuring quality. How can Mr. Jones look his clients in the eye and seriously expect them to view this as a flaw?
· ex-EV1 driver · 20 weeks ago
I think that any expectation of rational action by TSLA is silly. They are a venture play and are clearly worthless today but have huge potential if they execute as planned. Their stock value today is purely a function of whether you believe they will survive, succeed, or thrive once they actually start delivering product.
Clearly, if you look at TSLA purely from a statistical perspective, you'll decide they have either a 90% chance of failing completely (typical start-up survival rate) or a 0% chance (typical automobile manufacturer start-up survival rate). This probably accounts for why so many financial weenies (that's the technical term :-) are shorting them. The billion dollar question with Tesla is whether they have what it takes to make a car company.
- They did put a car on the road (with help from Lotus professionals) - the Roadster
- They have all of the big-ticket items (factory, tooling)
- They have a great-looking, great-performing prototype
- They have enough customers who have put serious money down to cover their first year's production
- Their market entry price is affordable for a large sector of society and they have a lot of up-sell opportunities to capture the entire high-end of the automobile market and make good profit.
- They have already made a name for themselves throughout the world.
I guess the only remaining unknown is whether they can actually execute their plan - that's a big one but they already have a good track record of executing.
· Charles (not verified) · 20 weeks ago
If you can buy TSLA stock in 5 years I would be shocked. I do not see how a start up automobile manufacture that plans on making tens of thousands of cars makes it in today's market. The barrier to enter the market is just to high.
That said, TSLA stock today maybe a good investment. If they prove they can deliver a great car at a close to reasonable price somebody will buy them. Toyota and MB would be my first guess, but Fiat maybe the best fit.
· goldenfooler (not verified) · 20 weeks ago
Fiat is owned by chrysler already soo I don't think fiat will be doing anything.
Actually a slow start as a quality high end car is what they should be. They shouldn't try to be a huge market company and should sell their tech to the highest bidder as it comes out. They can test the product in their own cars and sell to others.
· EVNow · 20 weeks ago
@goldenfooler (not verified) · "Fiat is owned by chrysler already soo I don't think fiat will be doing anything."
Fiat owns Chrysler, not the other way round. BTW, Fiat 500 EV will be here next year (or '13).
· EVNow · 20 weeks ago
@ex-EV1 driver · "they have a lot of up-sell opportunities to capture the entire high-end of the automobile market and make good profit."
Do you mean entire high-end EV market ?
They have very little probability of making good profit just selling high-end EVs, a few thousand a year. The only "good" future is for someother company to buy them. That can happen with Tesla doing fairly well - or near bankruptcy. We have to wait and see how it will turn out.
· ex-EV1 driver · 20 weeks ago
@EVNow,
No, you are setting your sights way too low.
I mean the entire high-end automobile market.
I don't see any problem being profitable making 20,000 to 40,000 high-end vehicles, especially if they follow these with a mass-market sub-$30K car that can lead to sales of hundreds of thousands.
I certainly hope Tesla doesn't sell-out and I highly doubt, given Musk's ego that this will happen. On the rosier side, I suspect it will be more likely that they buy out one of the big OEMS in 10 to 20 years.
High-end EVs are the only way that makes sense starting out though. It gets them into the business and gives them real credibility. I can see them doing what BMW did but possibly even going deeper into the mass market.
. . . or they could collapse :-(
· Anonymous (not verified) · 20 weeks ago
I seldom agree with stock analysts, especially when the subject is not something that's been around for 100 years and is not volatile. EV penetration depends primarily on the price of batteries (the Tesla Model S battery pack is around $40,000 for the 320 mile version) and their lifespan , and, to a lesser extent, upon the price of gasoline. Tesla Motors is well positioned to make a profit from their Model S, since their overhead
is lower than any of the major automakers and their car can command a premium.
Supposedly their break even point is somewhere around half of their expected yearly production. Right now they hold over $40 million in reservation fees from nearly 9,000
future Model S owners. There car obviously is not meant to be a mass market
vehicle, so that any estimates of low EV penetration, even if accurate, are highly unlikely to apply to the Model S, any more than they applied to the roadster, which achieved success when there was NO EV market penetration, aside form that car itself.
· JRP3 · 20 weeks ago
" There car obviously is not meant to be a mass market
vehicle, so that any estimates of low EV penetration, even if accurate, are highly unlikely to apply to the Model S, any more than they applied to the roadster, which achieved success when there was NO EV market penetration, aside form that car itself."
Exactly, Tesla is somewhat immune from the success or failure of mass market EV adoption. They are building cars that are quite functional even without a massive fast charging network and selling to consumers who most likely have at least one other vehicle if they really need longer distances. The high end car market is all about elegant, smooth, quiet, powerful, transportation, and above all, uniqueness. Tesla has all of that, especially the latter. They are using the most energy dense cell technology currently available and I don't see any other OEM trying to do anything similar. Tesla will probably retain that advantage for at least the next five years or so, (barring some unforeseen breakthrough, which they could potentially also adopt.)
I look at Porsche sales volumes as a comparison, there is no reason Tesla can't do as well at similar volumes. Porsche has been increasing volumes in recent years but only sold around 54K vehicles in 02.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche#Production_and_sales
· I could be a fan if the price was better (not verified) · 20 weeks ago
I recently saw the Tesla S at Bell Square Mall. Initially I was excited. Gorgeous car, lots or room, 300 mile range, $50. Then I got home and found to get the 300 mile range it was $98k. I am no longer excited.
· JRP3 · 20 weeks ago
Actually that's only for the fully blinged out model, you can get a 300 mile 85kwh S for $69,900 after the $7500 rebate.
"The uplevel Model S Signature's $77,400 sticker buys an 85kWh battery pack, a 300-mile range, a 125 mph top speed and an unlimited-mileage warranty. "
http://www.insideline.com/tesla/model-s/2013/tesla-model-s-pricing-and-o...
· theflew · 20 weeks ago
@JRP3,
The problem with comparing them with Porche's sales volume is your comparing sales of a company that has been around for 80 years and is well known worldwide for their products. Versus a company that has been around for a few years and has sold a few thousand cars over that time. It will take time for Tesla to make a name for itself before it starts selling in volumes. The challenge is can the do that fast enough before other manufactures (BMW, Nissan, GM, etc...) get into the game with better know names.
· Charles (not verified) · 20 weeks ago
Also remember that Porche is no longer independent.
· EVNow · 20 weeks ago
@ex-EV1 driver · "I don't see any problem being profitable making 20,000 to 40,000 high-end vehicles, especially if they follow these with a mass-market sub-$30K car that can lead to sales of hundreds of thousands."
I don't see anyway they can sell 20 to 40k model s's in the next 3 or 4 years - even if that were to make them profitable (very unlikely). The market just isn't that big - and hardly anyone has heard about Tesla to give them $70k+. I think some of us here tend to be unrealistically optimistic.
Then, they apparently have a big problem with quick charging. They don't even want to have their 40kWh car quick charge (and be able to warrant for 8 yrs). Infact the word is they want no more than 2% of quick chargers (i.e. 7 a year ?). Given this I don't see how they can make a viable under $30k EV.
Infact, I don't see anyone selling 100k EVs in the next 5 years - unless there is a dramatic battery break-through or oil shortage.
All other OEMs can make small # of EVs and survive as they cross-subsidize or achieve economies of sclae by using common components. This is something Tesla (of Fisker or Coda or Think) can't do. That is why I think there is little chance of an independant EV only OEM surviving for long.
BTW, Elon seems to be a serial entrepreneur - so he will sell Tesla (like he sold x.com) and move on to something new.
· EVNow · 20 weeks ago
To clarify I mean ramp up to 20 to 40 k per year when I say "20 to 40k model s's in the next 3 or 4 years".
· Anonymous (not verified) · 20 weeks ago
Wall street stock analysts want people to sell their TSLA stock so they can buy it up at $20 and sell it off for big profits once the Model S starts mass production & delivery.
With headquarters in Palo Alto, CA - silicon valley - Tesla is literally right next door to Google, Apple and lots of other tech company headquarters where there are thousands of nerdy guys(like me) with disposable income and a love of computerized tech toys. I will probably end up getting a more practical Leaf, but the model S is awesome. They cannot fail.
· ex-EV1 driver · 20 weeks ago
@EVNow,
I think you underestimate the number of wealthy conservatives that there are that are looking for an oil alternative. There are probably some liberal who will go that way as well. The Silicon Valley, alone, can probably absorb 10K Model Ss per year. I can definitely see it becoming the car to have, quickly supplanting BMW. You have to get over thinking of Tesla as an EV company. Musk's drive is to create a car company - his rhetoric and actions both support this
I agree that stupid, wimpy, microcars aren't going to suddenly find a US market large enough for all of the nimrods who are gunning for it to make money but Tesla is in a class of their own with a real car that needs no excuses.
I don't know where you're getting the bad info about quick charging but I question it.
I can offer a very reasonable reason why they wouldn't want to warranty a 40 kWhr battery for 8 years.
The cycle life on such a small battery will be a whole lot worse than on the 50 kWhr one on the Roadster and its using the cheapest batteries possible. They don't have high cycle life. Their large packs use newer batteries and won't cycle nearly as many times in 8 years as the 40 kWhr pack.
Regarding Supercharging:
There's no reason any battery won't quickcharge as long as they keep the temperature cool enough. If the temperature goes above some safe amount, they simply slow down the charging current - just as they do today on the Roadster in extremely hot weather. Here are a couple of possible explanations for why Tesla won't allow Supercharging with their 40 kWhr packs:
1) Cooling system capacity: Since the "C" rating is lower for the 40 kWhr battery, naturally it will heat up more than a larger one. If the Model S's cooling system is designed to keep a 75 kWhr pack cool during a 90 kW fast charge, then, naturally, a 40 kWhr pack will either have to charge slower or have a beefier cooling system. I doubt they would design a beefier (more expensive) cooling system for their low-end battery pack - that's bad business.
2) Cheaper battery pack: Clearly, they're making the basic 40 kWhr pack as cheap as they think they can so perhaps they're cutting all costs possible. This could mean minimum-gauge copper inter-connect - the part that gets hot when charging (remember li-ion charging is endo-thermic so its the current through the copper that gets hot, not the charging).
3) Developing only 1 cheap battery pack: I would think that, perhaps they could offer a slower Super-charge speed with the 40 kWhr pack (at extra cost) unless they just don't think it is worth developing 2 different 40 kWhr packs (one with and one without Super-charge) on this first round.
Remember, the double charger will permit AC charging at 20kW. Maybe they figure that is enough for their low-end and this can be done within the $50K budget. These guys aren't dumb. Don't rule them out too quickly.
You can definitely bet that Tesla will be maximizing cross-components in their Model S and Model X (SUV). I'll be very surprised if their mass-market vehicle (often called Blue-Star) doesn't share a lot with the S and X as well - but that isn't planned for the 3 - 4 year time period we're discussing.
You're right about Musk's past as a serial entrepreneur but those were over a decade ago. I believe that he wants to go down as Henry Ford, Robert Goddard, and Werner VonBraun - all combined. This won't happen if he sells out. He's got a very big ego to fill - fortunately.
· JRP3 · 20 weeks ago
ex ev,
I find it interesting that you think conservatives are the main target for oil free transportation when liberals have historically been much more interested in alternative fuels and transportation. It's only recently that some conservatives have begun to understand the real benefits of getting off of oil. Conservatives have been the "Drill baby drill" party for decades, and most still are.
· JRP3 · 20 weeks ago
@theflew
Actually that makes my point, Tesla is going to be approaching Porsche volumes of 10 years ago in a few years, with a product that is even more unique and desirable. The OEM's in the high end market are dragging their feet and at this rate will take years just to catch up to Tesla. Tesla will be synonymous with high end EV's when the others are finally getting into the market for real. The point is that high volume is not necessary in this market segment to be successful. Reportedly Porsche is one of the most profitable automaker per unit on one of the smallest sales volume.
· EVNow · 20 weeks ago
@ex-EV1 driver · "I think you underestimate the number of wealthy conservatives that there are that are looking for an oil alternative."
LOL. Conservatives ?! I guess there are like 4 or 5 of them. Only thing conservatives care about is is to conserve their own wealth and privilege in society. They have convinced themselfs that if our greate oil companies are allowed the drill whereever they want - we will soon have $1/gallon oil for the next few thousand years.
Anyway, you can get an idea of how many of them are there by looking at Volt sales. I can bet that S owners will be overwhelmingly moderate/liberal.
"I don't know where you're getting the bad info about quick charging but I question it."
Someone got that from Tesla store.
Without gong into much detail - there should be no difference in 20kWh & 85 kWh when charging at same C rate. Batteries should be able to easily handle 1C - but apparently not the high density ones Tesla gets. They give up some on power density when they go after energy density.
· ex-EV1 driver · 20 weeks ago
@JRP3 and EVNow,
Yes, conservatives have always made up a large portion of the early production EV Market. Liberals just gather around, singing kumbahya and complain that someone else should pay for everything they need. Conservatives understand supply-side. Many conservatives have military service. I remember a discussion about insurance coverage with the EV1s when it was discovered that a lot were covered by USAA, an insurance company that only covered military officers and their families. They know, personally, what it means to sacrifice and serve for the greater good.
Sure, many vocal conservatives are mental midgets following their leader Rush Limbaugh. Conservatives with brains, however, are the ones who make things happen so liberals will have something to tax and protest about.
If you want to know how to spot a conservative Prius driver; there's no rainbow, Obama, "imagine world peace", or similar liberal-slogan bumper sticker on the back. Its just for transportation, not to make a statement or make him more popular among his naive, weak, narrow-minded liberal friends. (you fired first EVNow, not me)
In case you folks haven't detected it, I resent EVNow's offensive, closed-minded, blanket statements about conservatives. I do agree that the Republican Party has been subverted by a loud bunch of shills for the non-productive oil and finance industries so they're not really sticking with what I consider to be conservative values. My grandfather is likely screaming from his grave today.
Now, getting past the political bickering and on to EVNow's battery issues:
You're right that there would be no difference in 20 kWh and 85 kWh when charging at the same C rate; it would take an hour to charge for either but that doesn't mean the packs were both designed for 1C charging. We definitely know, however, that Panasonic's high Specific Energy (Wh/kg) batteries have less Specific Power (W/kg) than today's Li-ion. I also have been told by several at Tesla that their 40 kWhr pack uses a different chemistry than their larger packs. With a 300 mile pack, the discharge current shouldn't matter but the charging current will affect charging speed.
I think this is all consistent with my previous battery posting.
With 20 kW Level 2 charging, the 40 kWhr pack will be charging at 1/2 C and Tesla offers this option. Since 160 miles/charge is a little short on range to be doing road-trips anyway (charging stop every ~2 hours), is it really worth the expense to beef up the pack to handle charging at 1C? Folks who only buy the 40 kWhr pack are going to be bargain-minded and sacrificing the ICE-like road-trip capability anyway.
· JRP3 · 20 weeks ago
Your rather unscientific classification of how to determine the political leanings of Prius drivers says more about your own attitudes than reality. Talk about close minded statements. I'm fairly liberal and have never put stickers on any of my vehicles, rainbow or otherwise. You may claim that "true" conservative values understand the benefits of EV usage but the reality is that the Republican party, the "conservative" party, has always been late to the table on environmental and energy conservation issues. Instead of complaining about gas prices I went and built my own EV. As a member of many EV discussion boards it's quite obvious that most members are more liberal leaning than conservative.
· EVNow · 20 weeks ago
@ex-EV1 driver · "Yes, conservatives have always made up a large portion of the early production EV Market. "
Fact free statement.
"Conservatives with brains, however, are the ones who make things happen so liberals will have something to tax and protest about."
What do you call Conservatives with brains ? Moderates.
While you were not watching the conservative agenda has been moved - unfortunately today's conservative is not what you think they are. Checkout the Iowa field - you know what I mean.
"If you want to know how to spot a conservative Prius driver"
Rather a very poor marker. Stickers are only used by a few % of the population. That doesn't make 95% of them conservative.
Anyway - before the plugins actually got produced & sold - there was this hope among many of us that plugins are one thing that both conservatives & liberals could support. But the GM bailout changed that - conservatives became vocally anti-Volt & by extension enti-EV. Infact every stereotype in the media of a plugin driver is that of a liberal - with most conservative media outlets bashing them all the time.
"Since 160 miles/charge is a little short on range to be doing road-trips anyway "
That is a poor statement. 80% of us bought Leafs with QC - we all want it, because that helps double the range. We won't take them on a 500 mile roadtrip - but on 150 or 200 mile roadtrips. I even made some scenarios for travel around Seattle and why I "need" QC. Moreover - I want an upgrade to Leaf - not a downgrade.
https://picasaweb.google.com/109298481387526266343/LeafScrapBook#5689429...
· EVNow · 20 weeks ago
I should add - one more important thing.
Conservatives (or rather Republicans) are opposing everything that Obama apparently supports. So if Obama supports Evs - they become anti-EV. If Obama supports renewables - they become anti-Renewables. If Obama supports extending tax-breaks, they become anti Payroll Tax extension.
Since most conservatives take their cue from Fox news (and thus establishment Republicans), they have now become anti-EV.
Not that most Liberals are sold on EVs. Most of them repeat the "shifting from tail pipe to smoke stack" rhetoric (you can see this even in PriusChat).
· ex-EV1 driver · 20 weeks ago
"Conservatives (or rather Republicans) are opposing everything that Obama apparently supports."
I couldn't agree more. The converse is also true as well. This is why I am opposed to political slams when dealing with EVs. Politics means one has to join a side and defend the side whether it is right or wrong but only because it is the opposing side. As Machiavelli pointed out, one must destroy the opposition no matter what. This is why I am against large government control in general because government control makes everything political.
· abasile · 20 weeks ago
@EVNow: Thank you for making the distinction between conservatives and Republicans. While I have conservative views, I am frankly disgusted with both major political parties and the politicization of issues that should be nonpartisan. I am now leaning toward changing my voter registration from Republican to Independent.
Also, at least from my experience, I don't think opposition to EVs is as strong among conservatives (at least in California) as is often supposed. The majority of the LEAF test drives I've given have been to conservatives...
· EVNow · 20 weeks ago
@abasile · "Thank you for making the distinction between conservatives and Republicans."
I actually think - the whole linear scale of conservative vs liberal is rather simplistic. We should atleast look at 2 axis - economic (traditional left & right) & social (libertarian vs authoritarian).
· abasile · 20 weeks ago
On that "political compass", I end up in the upper right quadrant, but not all that far from the center.
· JRP3 · 20 weeks ago
I'm hanging out with Gandhi, Mandela, and the Dali Lama :) I would have classified myself as liberal with libertarian leanings so that seems just about right.
· Jose G · 20 weeks ago
I'm in the bottom right (or Libertarian-Right) of that Political Compass test as expected, about half way down and 1/3 of the way to the right.
· Jose G · 20 weeks ago
As far as TSLA stock price, it's important to understand that the stock market is forward looking. That is the stock price itself is the prediction of future success. Whatever the "professional" analysts say, should at the very least be taken with a huge grain of salt.
· Chris T. (not verified) · 20 weeks ago
@LarryC and Anonymous: stock brokers make their money mainly by people trading stocks. People trade stocks more often when the forecast price goes up and down a lot. Hence, objective analysis almost always shows that stock XYZ is worth $50 now, $10 in a few months, and $90 a few months after that. This is, of course, because the facts on the ground change a whole lot every few months, and has nothing to do with the fact that these forecast changes influence the punters to buy and sell. No, these objective analyses are entirely objective, every time. :-)
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The financial industry is fairly good a predicting behavior of commodity industries but has a terrible record at dealing with technological breakthroughs. As an example, it completely missed the cellular market for about the first decade of cellular phones while that $trillion business was starting up. Early market analyst reports discussed a mature market for only a few thousand cellular phones in the US.
I'm not saying Tesla is a slam dunk but I also don't lend much credence to predictions from Wall Street.
I like your picture with crowd gathered around a working Tesla Model S. It kind of puts to rest the kinds of nonsensical anti-Tesla comments such as were posted anonymously on the thread http://www.plugincars.com/10-new-electric-cars-coming-2012-111135.html