Real Electric Car Battery Costs Remain Elusive

So different people are saying different prices. But what bloomberg says may be close to real. Prices dipped 14% from $800 to $689 and thats because 1,000s of Plugins/EVs were sold last year with 6 models already on the market.

Just like the price of Solar PV Panels went down, battery price may also go down, since Hybrids, Plugins and EVs are using Batteries.

I drive an ActiveE with a real range of 100 miles on a full charge. Perfect for local driving in Marin and into SF. I'd like to see a 200 mile battery range to take me to meetings in Silicon Valley because I can't make a round trip on a single charge and the availability of chargers at my destinations in non-existent, and/or not reliably available. I would pay more for range and if the breakthrough is only 66% that might not yet be good enough for a car that can be driven around the bay area.

At a capacity cost of $500/kWh, and with an expected lifetime of about 2,000 full cycle equivalents, that comes to about $0.25 per kWh to cycle the electricity through the battery. This is the cost of "handling" electricity through these batteries, and this is why reducing (total lifetime) battery cost will do more for electric vehicle viability than anything else. (If batteries lasted 10,000 full cycles, their current price would be attractive.) This $0.25 per kWh handling is like paying $8.42 per gallon for handling your gasoline. The cost of the actual electricity is on top of that, adding anywhere from $0.03 per kWh special off-peak rate to an effective rate of $0.35 per kWh at some of the for-profit charge stations. The current national average rate for residential electricity is about $0.11 per kWh, with much of the populated Northeast paying from $0.15 to $0.20 per kWh. I don't know how much battery costs can be reduced. Over the history of the battery, progress has surged from time to time hasn't it?

@Norbett: The mpgE ratings for mileage are based on 33.7 kWh = 1 gallon of gas. That means you need 33.7 kWh of electricity to cover those miles of EPA rating, about 100 mpgE for several electrics. So if there is a cost of $0.25 per kWh for electricity, and 33.7 kWh are expended to get 100 mpgE, then it follows that 33.7*0.25 = $8.42 for that "gallon" of energy. As far as how much battery costs could be reduced, we can all agree that there is plenty of room between their current price... and free. Let's say that price doesn't get reduced, but longevity does. If the total expected full charge cycles were 5,000, then that "handling" cost would only come to $0.10 per kWh. Will anybody be able to achieve significant cost reduction... perhaps. Predicting the future is a speculative business. Right now, there are commercially available ultracapacitor modules whose total "handling" costs are only about $0.08 per kWh. Of course, they don't have the energy density to be viable for the current electric car configuration. They are used, I believe, in conjunction with EV batteries to limit surge demands on the battery, which helps battery longevity, effectively helping lower total battery cost.

@Norbert: Where exactly did I say that a gasoline car gets 100 mpg? What is the matter with you? You're replies are vague, but overtly defensive. You detail none of your math. Instead you just brandish a number or two as if you've made your point. You seem emotionally invested in what amounts to a crystal ball prediction of the future. Are you afraid to simply outline a rational comparison of the costs? Lastly, how does offering a capital cost comparison of ultracapacitors vs. Li-ion batteries demonstrate in any way that my knowledge on this subject is somehow deficient compared to yours? Are you aware that in Shanghai, (China) several electric buses are in service using not batteries, but ultracapacitors for energy storage? Sorry to have called you on your attitude like this, but you need it. "Rest assured that time doesn't stand still..." whoever said it did? Not me. I simply said it's not necessarily a piece of cake to accurately predict future developments. History has proven more soothsayers wrong than right - run that by as many experts as you like, and I'll venture the prediciton that you'll find that most agree. Anyway, I do hope batteries improve, but I don't think it is worth conversing with you any further. Good day.

Or in words: With an assumed battery cost of $0.25 per kWh electricity consumed (with the assumed cycle lifetime), the battery cost would be about $2 for the distance which an average gas car can travel with 1 gallon of gasoline.

@ex-EV1 driver

Agree that it is an interesting approach. Aside from the question of correct calculation, the input parameters are probably too optimistic for the current point in time, but we might get to an equivalent of $2/gas-gallon in just a few years.

Censoring your contributors? Just like the communists and dictatorships. None of you have a spine. None of you can handle a shred of truth tossed back at you. Nobody can make any case contrary to what you want to hear, because you throw out their comments!

The real cost of gas? I served 20 years in the Air Force as did my wife. We export one thing well, America dollars to petrol middle east oil barons. No thank you. The real cost of gas is an export quotient of $400 billion dollars and let's tell the truth, another $400 billion annually to secure oil for trading partners competing against us. Insanity to even have this discussion the one its framed here. The real cost of a gallon of gas is just over $10 a gallon if we'd look at macroeconomics our country faces, versus the long-term addiction perspective of one person looking outward. We all need to join forces and put the jobs and those dollars to work right here at home. Every dollar exported or used to protect oil is added to every product or service we Americans then have to compete on the world shelves. Focus on the right things - our country is at stake over this.

All these lower prices are great news:

1). I'd like to pre order my Cadillac Escalade Electric, with 600 mile range and 200 KWH battery. It will only take 30 hours or so to charge it with my current charging dock and that's fine with me...I only take 600 mile trips every so often.

2). Fast Level 3 chargers I suspect will take advantage of this decrease in cost. Already, several charger dock manufacturers are coming out with a Level I input, and Level II output, i.e. 1400 watt draw from the existing 110 outlet in the garage all day to charge up the DOCK's batteries, then charge at 240v@30 amps when the car is home for the day. Utilities LOVE this kind of load because its only another 1.5 kva demand on their system, and its almost continuous.

3). It doesn't take a genius to realize why not make a similiarly operating Level II input, Level III output fast charger..Since the Level III charger is going to be spending the vast majority of its 24 hour day unused, why not take the power in at a slow rate (battery buffering) to greatly minimize utility demand charges? But then the few cars that can profit from a level III charge can get filled lickedy split. Also, the extra cost of the Dock's batteries can be mitigated by the lack of electric service change at the service station.. Example: if the commercial garage only has a single phase 200 amp service, this will be plenty for this unit and the garage, as opposed to the added cost of putting in an additional 277Y/480V 150 amp service just to make the charger work, along with plenty of demand charge (~~ $1500/ month / charger )