Exclusive Interview: Elon Musk Shows Cool Confidence About Tesla's Future

By Jim Motavalli · November 01, 2011

Tesla's Elon Musk

Elon Musk: 320-mile range in the Model S, a unique charging system, and big plans for half a million cars a year. (Jim Motavalli photo)

Elon Musk keeps his cool, whether he’s touting Tesla Motors’ latest innovation, disparaging the competition, or predicting where the business is going. In conversations by telephone and in person over coffee at the Tesla showroom in Los Angeles, Musk (named Tech Innovator of the Year by the Wall Street Journal Magazine recently) demonstrated command of the company’s business down to the molecular level.

Minding the Gap

For instance, how is Tesla going to get through a months-long gap when the Roadster is out of inventory and the Model S sedan has yet to appear on the market? “There’s a bit of confusion about that,” says Musk. “We’re sold out on the Roadster and have stopped taking orders on it. But we’ll be doing deliveries of the car in the U.S. until the end of this year and we’re reserving inventory for Europe and Asia with deliveries that will continue until the middle of next year. And we’re producing powertrains for Daimler [the Smart Electric Drive and the A-Series battery vehicles sold in Europe], and will begin work on Toyota powertrains in the second quarter of next year.”

According to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing, Tesla will take in $100 million from the Toyota partnership, in an arrangement that extends from 2012 to 2014. It’s a timely bit of cash for Tesla. Toyota also invested $50 million in Tesla.

More than 300 Miles?

Tesla is, indeed, looking east. In October, it announced a new battery partnership with Panasonic to purchase cells for up to 80,000 Model S cars through 2015. “They’ve been a partner with us for a while, and this is a big deal because these cells are optimized for the Model S. We think small cells are better than large, and with these batteries we’re confident we’ll exceed 300 miles of range [as announced for the first 1,000 cars, which will be called Signature models]. I think we’ll get to at least 310 miles, maybe 320, measured by the current EPA test procedure.”

Obviously, a battery EV with 320-mile range is unprecedented. If Tesla does deliver that, it will cement its reputation as the go-to company to provide state-of-the-art battery consulting for the nation’s OEM automakers.

JB Straubel, Tesla’s chief technical officer, told me that even longer range was possible. “We didn’t fill up the entire space with batteries,” he said. “We think that 300-mile range is a sweet spot.” Although the Model S will have swappable batteries, the company isn’t likely to capitalize on that ability in the short term—and hasn’t invested in an infrastructure (swap stations) that would make it practical. “But in any case it’s helpful to be able to remove the batteries quickly—it’s a 30-second operation,” Straubel said.

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Tesla's Own Charging System

Because the batteries can be removed quickly, and because Tesla will offer three separate packs for the Model S with 160-, 230- and 300-mile range, it gives rise to speculation that customers could “trade up” after buying the car. Straubel admits this is theoretically possible, since all three packs slot into the same space, but both Straubel and Musk downplay it as an option—in part because the 300-mile pack is heavier and requires some suspension adjustments.

Tesla tends to like its own solutions to problems, and that’s also the case with charging. Instead of simply signing on to the new J1772 AC/DC “combo” plug (which offers both Level II and Level III fast charging) from the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE), Tesla is going it alone with its own significantly downsized and sleeker combo design.

Presumably Tesla could simply have styled a better-looking plug that nonetheless used the J1772 connectors, but that’s not the company’s approach. “If we have a choice of a great standard or being forced to adhere to a crap standard, we choose ours,” Musk said. “Ours is awesome. We can get 90 kilowatts through such a tiny plug. And we’ve made the cord as light as physics will allow to still be able to carry that amount of power.”

Since most public stations will be set up to charge with the J1772 plug, this is a potential problem, but Tesla says it will supply adaptors to accommodate any existing standard. The company also unveiled its home charger (which it calls a “connector,” since the actual 10- or 20-kilowatt charger is on the car). The wall-mounted unit is an ultra-sharp angular design, in various colors to match customers’ cars.

Big Expansion Plans

Musk says the Model S “is looking very good. We’ve been very clear we’re committing to deliveries no later than July of next year.” A next-gen Roadster will be available “in three years or so,” and Tesla will offer a sneak peek of the crossover Model X (on the Model S platform) at the end of the year, followed by a major event early next year.

According to Musk, the Model S “will have vastly more interior and cargo space than the Fisker Karma, and it’s 20 to 30 percent lighter. It’s five-star crash-rated in every category, and it will be the safest car in the world.” Current plans are to produce 20,000 cars a year, but Musk says that’s based on only one shift at the former GM/Toyota factory in Fremont, California it bought for peanuts last year. “We could certainly double our rate of production pretty quickly,” Musk said. “We could go to two shifts with very little added expenditure.”

Tesla’s ultimate goal is to produce a half million cars a year. How long will it take? “Six years,” says Musk. “Seven at the very latest. We plan to use the whole factory.” That plant is five million square feet, and Tesla is using only a small corner of it to build the Model S. So Elon Musk can’t be said to lack confidence.

About the author

Jim Motavalli writes on environmental topics for The New York Times, CBS MoneyWatch, NPR’s Car Talk, AOL, Mother Nature Network and TheDailyGreen.com (Hearst). He is author or editor of six books, including Forward Drive: The Race to Build Clean Cars for the Future, Feeling the Heat: Dispatches from the Frontlines of Climate Change, and Naked in the Woods: Joseph Knowles and the Legacy of ...

Full bio · 31 posts

Comments

· Larry S (not verified) · 28 weeks ago

What an amazing company and this is only the beginning. I think 20 years down the road, Tesla EVs will be able to travel 500 miles and charge within minutes! Batteries are getting cheaper and more powerful every year

· Chris O (not verified) · 28 weeks ago

320 miles EPA...of course there is the EPA urban cycle and the EPA highway cycle so Musk presumable means the urban cycle. Still extremely impressive. 30 minute battery changes are of course not a serious alternative for fast charging. I wonder what Tesla is going to do about a fast charge infrastructure that has the capacity to fill up Tesla's huge batteries in a reasonable time.The 10-20KW on board charger should make for some pretty fast home charging though. In fact everything about the Model S and Tesla's plans for the future sounds pretty sensational so far. Now let's see if the man can deliver...

· EvDriver (not verified) · 28 weeks ago

It's a little annoying that they are going to build their own plug, it'll be like buying a toaster from Europe, it works great as long as you only want to plug it in in one place and you never get rid of it, but if you want to plug in at work you'll have to get that annoying adapter out every day, or if you sell it you have to make sure that the charge cord goes with it, a problem with some of the electric vehicles on Ebay that use the paddle charging interface.

· Norbert (not verified) · 28 weeks ago

With a range of 160-300 miles, you're unlikely to bother plugging in at work on a regular basis, and happy to leave the EVSE to be used by EVs with a shorter range..

· Jose G · 28 weeks ago

Go Tesla go.

Unlike mpg which matters for both city & highway, when measuring the range of an EV, what's most important is the highway range. More specifically, the highway range at common speed limits (65 mph) as well as the highest speed limits (80 mph). The highway range at 55 mph means nothing to me unless I'm in a "range anxiety" situation.

· Laurent J. Masson · 28 weeks ago

Sorry to be stupidly down-to-Earth, but how about the Tesla car company making money?

It was funny to read that the J1772 plug was a "crap standard". Though there's no doubt it can be improved, that won't help Tesla making friends within the industry. Then I wonder who will sell the Tesla plug that users will need to get in their garage?

· ex-EV1 driver · 28 weeks ago

@EvDriver,
. . . that annoying adapter . . .
Tesla is using the J1772 electrical standard, just a different physical connector. Like your European toaster analogy, it will simply mean using a simple plug adapter at a J-1772 charging station, not something complicated. It will be easy to carry one of these along in the glove box.
Even with the EV1, we had to use a simple adapter for small-paddle inductive charger (SPI) since the EV1 used a large-paddle inductive connector. It wasn't really much of a hassle, certainly not "annoying".

· Norbert (not verified) · 28 weeks ago

@Laurent: Making money is scheduled for 2013. :)

The rant probably refers to the much larger J1772 AC and DC "combo" plug, which probably nobody has seen yet since it won;t be ready until later in 2012 or so, but which is necessary to support 90 kW fast charging which Model S is capable of.

Tesla itself will sell an EVSE for the garage, however the Model S can also use a NEMA 14-50 plug using the included "Universal Mobile Connector".

· Benjamin Nead · 28 weeks ago

A few weeks ago there was a thread here on Plug In Cars, asking if there was someone in the EV industry who mirrored the qualities of the late Steve Jobs. I think Jim's very nicely written profile of Elon Musk paints the industrialist as a Jobs protege in the most flattering sense.

The refusal to use a J1772 plug for the Model S, partially for aesthetic reasons - yet include an adapter - reminds me of Apple's decision a decade ago not to include a built-in floppy drive on early iMacs. The computer industry and critics were generally aghast back then. But Jobs effectively put a nail in the coffin of the floppy the day he decided on that one. I bought a USB floppy drive for my early iMac, thinking I'd use it all the time, but rarely did.

Perhaps its wishful thinking on Musk's part, but he might be thinking that other manufacturers will adopt his plug, since it's still very early in the EV technical standards game. Time will tell.

Tesla's strategy to start at the high end of the market (Roadster) and gradually move down to still luxurious, yet more practical ones (Model S) also reminds me of the Apple business model. You can spend less money and get a perfectly good machines that runs Windows but the more expensive Mac - seemingly "less" of a machine, because it was a compact desktop instead of a tower - ended up being a more complete and well-thought-out package. The smaller Mac also often ended up being a less troublesome - and, resultantly, a less costly alternative over the long run. There are value-oriented Apple products, but no "cheap" ones.

Continuing the Apple analogy, I'll be interested to see if Telsa ever moves into an "iPod" of "iPad" type of product . . . an econo-car EV of sorts that competes in the Leaf/iMiev/Focus price range, but has a superior form/function design philosophy.

· kjd · 28 weeks ago

I have to agree with Benjamin on this one. Elon and Tesla will be the Steve and Mac combo for the auto industry.

Just take a look at the new SAE J1772 combo plug. Another writer called it a Frankenstine creation. It is no wonder Tesla went their own way. The SAE combo plug is a piece of crap.

Has anyone asked Elon if Tesla would license the Tesla plug to other auto companies ?

KJD
http://www.evalbum.com/3175

· Norbert (not verified) · 28 weeks ago

@kjd : "Has anyone asked Elon if Tesla would license the Tesla plug to other auto companies ?"

I'm not aware of anyone having asked Elon himself this question, but I asked at the Fremont factory event (Oct 2nd) if they consider offering it as a standard, and the very in-official opinion offered was that it would probably be proprietary at least initially (if I understood correctly), but that might simply reflect the fact that shortly before that, the SAE made announcements about its own plans for later in 2012. (I'd say the quote above about "being forced to adhere" doesn't sound like it would have been easy for Tesla to influence the SAE process itself).

· Laurent J. Masson · 28 weeks ago

That would be a great opportunity for PR. Freeware against proprietary solutions. I guess that depends on how much tech there is in that Tesla connector? Also, selling licenses to the Tesla plug wouldn't be easy.

· Grendal (not verified) · 28 weeks ago

@Benjamin - The Tesla strategy has always been that they will build a 30K car. I believe their plan calls for the Model X crossover SUV next, this will use the same platform the Model S uses. Musk has recently described it as the ultimate SUV. The X will be followed by a cabriolet version of the Model S for those that want to drive with the top down. Then comes the new roadster using a smaller skateboard battery pack. I expect this to exceed their current roadster in every way. And finally the fabled 30K car built off of that smaller platform. 30K will be the base price with upgrades for larger packs similar to the Model S. That's my guess from reading a lot of articles.

· Mikey (not verified) · 28 weeks ago

To maximize the investment, Tesla has to ultilize all common parts of their current Model S for the next car. That is the SUV. After that, they want to do another sport car also based on all common parts of the first two cars. It is a briliant plan since they don't need to invest a lot of $ / time and still have a whole fleet of cars. After all lessons learned from those middle price cars, they will be ready for the cheap brand new chassis car. By that time, Elon may not be with Tesla anymore, who knows.

· Anonymous (not verified) · 25 weeks ago

For Tesla to compete against the cheaper EV's from Brands like Nissan will be extremely challenging.

The only drawback for the Nissan Leaf is the lower range. But that will also change over the years and a lot of commuters can perfectly live with a 75 mile range.

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