I do not understand the cost of EV. An electric engine is clearly cheaper than an internal combustion. Battery pack is the cost?? I am not buying that. I think that there is some "we want to sell more oil" laying below all this. Do not forget that US has invaded Irak recently and there was a lot of black gold below those lands...They need to at least recover the investment of war...
Balancing Act: Range vs. Cost in Next-Gen Electric Cars
Bill Ford, executive chairman, Ford Motor Company, showed off the company's next wave of electric cars at the 2011 Detroit auto show. But will future development focus on increasing electric range or bringing down costs?
The plug-in vehicles rolling out to consumers this year rely on battery technology that’s already a step behind the cutting edge. After all, automakers have been working for years to secure suppliers, build prototypes, refine designs, and integrate systems. When deploying next-generation batteries in future models, automakers face a choice to apply energy density improvements toward increased electric range or reduced costs.
Of course, it’s more of a balancing act than an either-or scenario. A recent survey conducted by IBM’s Institute for Business Value found that U.S. consumers want both more range and lower costs.
For Ford Motor, it’s an open question as to where the optimal balance lies between cost and range. But according to Sherif Marakby, the company’s director of electric vehicle development programs, the answers “will become clear in the next couple of years with more and more EV introductions in the market.” Ford will adjust its plug-in offerings based on results it sees in two areas: First, customer and market acceptance of the current range of electric vehicles. “With several EV introductions, the customer will either tell us the current range is not practical (at any cost), or that cost will determine their next EV, even at current range levels,” he said. The second factor is how battery technology evolves in the next couple years, and especially energy density. Increased energy density drives down cost, said Marakby, and determines “how much battery we can fit in a car.”
According to Kevin See, an analyst with Lux Research who focuses on electric vehicles, cost will be the more important factor for automakers seeking mainstream acceptance of EVs. Although “range anxiety is obviously an issue,” he said, “we absolutely see cost as the major obstacle to mass adoption.”
It’s not a one-size-fits all market, however. “Right now, you can increase range just by building a bigger battery pack,” See said, noting that Coda Automotive has opted for a 40 percent larger pack for its $44,900 Coda Sedan than Nissan has chosen for its Nissan LEAF (33.8 kWh vs. 24 kWh), affording the Coda Electric Sedan up to 120 miles of range compared to about 100 miles for the LEAF.
As a pure-play EV provider, said See, Coda had to differentiate itself. “They can’t come out with the same car as the LEAF,” he said. “They’ve chosen the battery pack to be the differentiator.” See believes that at this stage, however, “a small increase in range is not worth $12,000 to most consumers.” At a certain point, additional range simply may not be worth it for all but a niche market. “Consumers are not expecting to do 300-mile road trips in an electric car,” said See.
Competitive pricing is a moving target, however. As fuel efficiency improves for internal combustion engine vehicles, said See, payback periods (i.e. the time it takes for an EV buyer to recoup the extra upfront cost of their plug-in by spending less on fuel) will increase, unless EV costs also come down. “Going forward, economies of scale for everybody is what’s going to bring down battery cost,” said See, and there’s interest in “tweaking” battery chemistry to further reduce costs. “But the question is, will they come down enough to compete with the internal combustion engine?”
Comments
· Green Girl (not verified) · 1 year ago
For me, the most important thing is range. I need to be able to get to my parents' home on a regular basis and that is 160 miles. Until charging stations are available on I-70 through the Mid-west I can't make it with an EV. I'd love one, but for now I think I'll have to go plug-in hybrid (hopefully by 2012). And the home charging will be PV.
· ex-EV1 driver · 1 year ago
The problem really isn't all that tough to solve and no balancing act is required. Tesla's Model S will have a simple solution to long range -vs- high price. Someone really has to want to solve the problem. Nissan's Japanese culture requires that someone smart innovate so their drones can copy it, therefore, I suppose a couple of years after Tesla has shown the solution, Nissan will follow. GM and Ford really don't want EVs so we can't expect to see any solutions coming out of them.
The solution . . .
You'll have to ask Tesla or wait for the Model S to come out to see. I'm not going to give any ideas to those who don't even take Tesla seriously - besides, my TSLA stock may go somewhere, unlike my GM.
· abasile · 1 year ago
It doesn't have to be an either/or proposition. While the Tesla Model S, for example, offers 160 miles of range in the base version, my understanding is that customers can pay extra and add enough battery capacity to drive as far as 300 miles. I'd like to see Ford do the same thing with the upcoming Focus EV. Given that I live in a semi-rural part of Southern California (in the mountains), it would be worth it to me to pay at least several thousand extra for an additional 50+ miles of range.
Also, in rationalizing the extra cost of an EV, I think the real competition at the moment is the Prius (starting at $21K "true market" value), not ICE-only vehicles. Depending on how much you drive, the extra cost of the Prius relative to a comparable non-hybrid will pay for itself in a very reasonable amount of time just in gas savings. Unless you're able to take advantage of a generous state rebate in addition to the $7500 federal tax credit, I wouldn't count on a current-generation EV paying for itself in fuel/maintenance savings.
Instead, you have to rationalize the purchase out of a desire to "do the right thing" for energy independence, the environment, etc., or maybe just for fun. Plenty of people have no problem spending more than average on cars they find attractive, so why not spend a bit extra for an EV which will pollute less and send less of our money overseas to people who hate us?
· abasile · 1 year ago
ex-EV1: You beat me to it! We agree on the Model S...
· Tony Stevens · 1 year ago
Well, I am here to give ANY Car Manufacturer this message: RANGE IS THE BIGGEST FACTOR WHEN IT COMES TO EV'S!!
I drive & sell All Electric Motorcycles and there has not been a single day that has gone by that I did not want more range than my cycle could give me. I have a 50-85 mile range on the cycle(s) that I drive and sell and I would love to have more. 150 miles on a cycle and 300 miles in a car. This should be the benchmarks that all EV's should have as a starting point to make the public take notice. You put those numbers out there and people will come to your dealerships to buy those vehicles. Stop trying to entice people in with your limited range EV vehicles. When you build a car today, do you list them as a 2 gallon gas tank model? A 5 gallon gas tank model? No, you put the 14 or 16 gallon tank in all your models. Do the same with the EV's. Build them to match or even surpass the type of car we have been driving for well over 50 years. Because we should expect you to surpass something you have been making for that long. Get with the program Ford and all the other ICE makers, because Tesla is just the beginning. And the Leaf is just the beginning.
And Josie, get real and believe in the stuff you are reporting on. You sound like a "You will have to peel my dead fingers from my SUV ICE car before I will drive an EV" person. I may be way off but, that is how I felt after reading your article.
· dgpcolorado · 1 year ago
@ex-EV1 driver, The idea that the $57K Tesla Model S is the solution to the range versus price problem strikes me as absurd. You live in a very different world from me if you consider that an affordable EV! And I won't believe the hype about Tesla coming out with a $30K car until I see an actual vehicle for sale. I'd love for it to be true, but...
If we want mass market adoption of EVs we will need mass market pricing. If it is true that manufacturers are losing considerable money on the current and upcoming EVs—as I can readily believe—it may take many years before the economies of scale can kick in.
My fear is that prices will stay so high that EVs will remain a niche market until/unless gas prices skyrocket.
· Priusmaniac (not verified) · 1 year ago
There is a strange thing called Democracy, it goes like this, people make up their own mind and when the time comes, they make their own personnal choice.
It must be just the same in this case. So, when we read "automakers face a choice", we should in fact read "customers face a choice".
Up to the point, we must be able, in a model, to chose if we want a battery that gives 20, 60, 100 or 200 miles and we must be able to chose if we want on onboard ICE charger of 1400 cc, 900 cc or 600 cc. Gas based, flex-fuel or none at all like in pure EV's.
This is exactly what we have been doing since decades when we chose a 1600 cc, a 2000 cc or a 4000 cc. Gas powered or diesel powered. With sunroof or without.
This is just an opportunity for new choices not a new system.
· darelldd · 1 year ago
These comments are GREAT. Even the folks who say they don't disagree seem to agree. It is almost like everybody read the article! :)
· darelldd · 1 year ago
**oops. Meant "don't agree" in place of don't disagree.
Range vs cost will be the issue for the forseeable future. Yes, Tony, I definitely hear you. And when people tell ME that they "need" more range, I reply with, You can have it. How much are you willing to pay for it?" Let's say you get 100 miles of range for $30k. Are you willing to pay $50k for 200 miles of range? People will want choice. There are many, many out there who never drive more than 100 miles, so why would we ever want to force them to have 200 miles worth of expensive, energy-intensive and heavy batteries to lug around? Yes, if price and environmental impact were of no consequence, I'm sure everybody would like 500 miles of range for those rare times when it would be handy to have. But when we have to pay for it, folks tend to put their "needs" into better perspective.
· ex-EV1 driver · 1 year ago
@dgpcolorado,
There you go putting words in my mouth. I didn't say Tesla's $57K car was affordable. I said "Tesla's Model S will have a simple solution to long range -vs- high price.". As a small startup, Tesla isn't going to offer a commodity priced car for at least 3 to 5 years, depending on the success they find in the higher-margin business. They do, however, have a simple, yet elegant solution to the price -vs- range issue though as we'll see when they decide to announce it. In the mean time, Nissan and GM will shove what they want us to have down our throats in their blundering way and pundits will wring their hands about range anxiety and the high cost of batteries. All the while, Tesla is building up a head of steam (to borrow a pre-ICE expression). Darrell, you're going to love it, so will the rest of you.
We're only in the prologue of EVs so everyone can quit fretting the little issues. Chapter 1 and beyone are what matters. Tesla is leading the way, whether or not you are supporting them or those who follow them.
Go Tesla!
· darelldd · 1 year ago
@ ex-EV1, Well, you have me on the edge of my seat now. How do we squeeze this top-secret Tesla information out of you? You seem to be the only one who knows this??? Can't just dangle little nuggest like that. Out with it, man!
· ex-EV1 driver · 1 year ago
Sorry darelldd,
Too much of our Model S is tied up in TSLA for me to want this public too soon. I hang around some places and hear things that I'd just assume didn't get around. I'm probably not the only one who knows it but its so simple, I'll just have to keep mum. Unless of course Tesla dissappoints me and doesn't take advantage of it when they release the Model S.
· Brad Berman · 1 year ago
Okay. Here's my guess (even though I don't expect ex-man to say yes or no).
It's a battery leasing or buy-back plan or some other scheme to not saddle the buyer with the upfront costs of buying the whole pack. There will be some level of flexibility regarding the ability to buy the range you want--instead of accepting only what comes as standard.
That's as far as I can take it, but I believe it's on the business side of the equation--not some dreamy new chemistry or technology. Okay Darell and others, your turn to riff.
· darelldd · 1 year ago
My guess is that they'll use the inkjet approach. Buy the battery you want and get the car for free after coupons.
· EVNow · 1 year ago
There isn't any silver bullet.
Post peak oil people will grab what they can get - even as the sprawl shrinks.
Tesla can keep dreaming about their quick change batteries, just like better place.
· JamesDavis · 1 year ago
Of course "darelldd", we, most of us, read the article and understand most all of it, and we are not first graders when it comes to reading other magazine articles about battery range for EV's neither. The part about this magazines articles that most of us don't understand is its ability to promote a regressing company like GM and calling their fossil fuel vehicle "The Volt" electric and always comparing it to a true electric "The Leaf". That's what we don't understand. "Andres" said it best, "we want to sell more oil" until there is none left. GM is the automaker that is holding America back, over inflating the price of EV's, and underinflating the range of EV batteries and EV style design. GM is who President Obama would call a reverse manufacturer who refuses to move forward and deceives the people into believing that their 'smoke-n-mirror antics are more true than the Holy Bible. Why do you think GM, Ford, and Chrysler held Telsa back for so long and demonized them and poisoned the American people against them by calling Telsa a 'Al Gore Tree Huger'.
Look at all the crappy ugly EV cars GM has come out with. They look like they belong in a circus with clowns crawling out of them. Doesn't that tells you something about the motive behind GM, Ford, and Chrysler?
· darelldd · 1 year ago
@JamesDavis -
Apparently you are replying to my joking post above re. everybody having read the article? While I'm not sure that I entirely grasp the point of your post, I HAVE looked at "all the crappy ugly EV cars that GM has come out with." By my count it is 1.5 EVs that they've managed to come out with. I leased one (EV1) and I've seen and driven the other 0.5 (Volt). I found neither of them to be crappy nor ugly. I have my own views on the motives of the various automakers, certainly.
· Samie (not verified) · 1 year ago
Ok let me say this, I favor greater advances in battery technology over considerable price cuts (though manufactures need not price vehicles out of reach to consumers bc. they need to keep constant production levels).
Why? I simply call it convenience factors. These factors are not easy to calculate but they are general consumer preferences that help solidify product adoption.
The debate about mileage is a great one. But mileage may be more important in terms of my convenience factors. One reason not everyone will have access to charging stations. As of now depending on personal driving, you need to recharge everyday or so. This can't be done for many apartment dwellers who would need to find a place to charge up 3-5 times a week. The second reason is actual charging time. Until batteries charge in less than five minutes general consumers will want the maximum mileage possible when they do charge up if say investing 30min to 8 hours of their time on one charge.
Also, I want to see battery technology that better delivers in all driving conditions/elements before manufactures try to reduce costs more. This is a convenience factor in that a consumer would feel confident driving a EV near a warm beach or say in a few hours driving up into cold mountainous terrain.
There are a lot more convenience factors to mention but the point is to focus on improving technology first instead of creating a vehicle that is cheap but limited in battery range, driving conditions, and long-term reliability/durability that is introducing a 18k or 24k (without rebate) vehicle marketed towards the masses.
· EVNow · 1 year ago
Coming back to OP - there is an interesting twist to this in the PHEV world. The tax credit structure makes the price moot.
Every kwh above 4kwh battery capacity gives extra $417 in tax credit. This maxes out at 16 kwh (exactly what Volt has - not a coincidence). This $417 is enough to cover the marginal cost of a battery higher in capacity by 1kwh. So a PHEV with some 8 miles ev range (4 kwh battery) and 40 mile range (16kwh) can be sold for the same post tax credit price !
· Steven (not verified) · 1 year ago
Perhaps in a follow-on article Plug-in Cars can move this discussion from the realm of theory to some practical information and suggestions for those of us facing a choice between the LEAF and the soon to be released Ford Focus Electric (FFE). From all I can see they are essentially the same car – but with Ford having done everything right, like active cooling for the battery and the customizable user interface.
If Ford offers the FFE at the same price point as the LEAF – this is the biggie information I’d appreciate BEFORE I have to plunk down money for a LEAF, unless some of you techie readers can give me some good reasons not to, I’m probably going that way. (I would be interested in knowing whether the FFE battery offers the same modular replacement capability as the LEAF – IOW you don’t have to replace the whole thing at once.)
Now for my 2 cents on THIS article… Much as I might hope that Ford and all the other EV makers stick to the original Ford’s “You can have any color you want as long as it’s black” marketing strategy – accommodating the great majority of us drivers for whom 60 to 100 miles is ‘enough’ range and thus spurring development of and cost reduction in the ‘Range Extending, Towable Trailer for Electric Cars’ (RETTEC) market – the right thing for them to do is probably give people what they want.
I (would like to shout that I) want a RETTEC I can hook to my home PV system to use as a backup battery / generator when Wall Street has finished siphoning all the money out of my local electric utility and it can no longer afford to provide maintenance to its grid. I expect that event to come before any desire to take my EV any further than it (LEAF / FFE) can go right now with one charge.
· Brad Berman · 1 year ago
@Steven. You got it. We'll do a deep-dive comparo of LEAF v. Focus Electric. Stand by.
By the way, I'm working on a magazine article about electric motorcycles. Brammo, really the only player right now--I see them as the Tesla of electric two-wheelers--will soon offer the upcoming Empulse with three different pack choices: 6 kWh, 8 kWh, and 10 kWh. You want the best price ($10k) and are willing to sacrifice range, go with the 6 kWh pack. Got the dough ($14k) but want to push past 100 miles of range, buy the 10 kWh system. Or split the difference in the middle. How hard could it be for EV makers to do the same? Of course, maybe packaging would not be as neat and tidy in the smaller pack and maybe the whole system wouldn't be entirely optimized on the power side, but it seems feasible considering the ability to adjust the firmware.. Just like when you decide on a computer with more or less processing speed and memory storage.
· Tom Moloughney · 1 year ago
Brad: Looking forward to the LEAF/Focus comparison. One of the challenges I think you have is how to properly compare the two vehicles performance in extreme weather conditions which I think is a big concern for most folks.
Sure, we basically know the range of the cars under ideal conditions, but how much better will the Focus perform in cold temperatures with it's active thermal management system? I would assume (and hope) much better, but is that really the case?
We're having an extraordinarily cold and snowy winter here on the East and the passive thermal management system on my MINI-E is struggling. Range is reduced, regenerative braking disengages when the battery temperature gets below 40 degrees, and if the battery gets too cold, it won't accept a charge so I have to drive it a bit to warm up the cells so I can plug in. I know it's a prototype not meant for production, but I am still very concerned about the LEAF's passive thermal system. I really hope they have engineered it to handle conditions like we are getting here now.
As for the topic of discussion here, remember that these cars are really the first generation of EV that will be for sale. 100 miles seems to be the current benchmark but that's not going to be the case for long. Ranges will steadily increase, prices will fall and charging time will decrease.
I think the manufacturers are going to really get to work on more purpose built EV's rather than starting with a conventional car and figuring how to make it an EV. Extreme weight reduction and aerodynamics are going to play a big role in reducing cost and improving range. You CAN engineer a safe, lightweight car that exceeds crash tests requirements. Pushing around 4,000+ pounds of metal and plastic plus occupants isn't they way to build cars anymore.
· ex-EV1 driver · 1 year ago
A Leaf -vs- Focus EV comparison will be questionably meaningless for a couple of years since we'll be comparing hearsay or an infant with a mature product until the both have been in production for a few years
My experience shows that until the Focus is really on the road, the mature product (the Leaf) will look unfairly bad because unforeseen problems will have shown up and everyone will be beating up on Nissan for these inevitable problems (just like they are beating up on Nissan for rollout issues today). It can be hard to look good when the competition can draw pictures of whatever they want.
Later, when the Focus actually does start rolling out but the Nissan has had time to fix some of the infancy issues, the Focus will look unfairly bad because its infancy and rollout problems will have just started becoming evident.
· darelldd · 1 year ago
@ ex-EV1
My veiw as well. I liken this to the whole fuel cell business - where the promise of a non-existant, perfect fuel cell vehicle of the future is compared to EVs that have actually been on the road for a decade. My favorite part being that EVs run on coal power, and all fuel cells of the future *will* run on renewables.
Yes, it is hard to hear about how perfect the FFE will be as compared to a product like the LEAF that currently exists.
· Henrik (not verified) · 1 year ago
That range versus cost dilemma of EVs could perhaps be solved in a business model where an EV like Tesla’s Model S with a 2 minute swappable battery with different ranges is offered as a combined sale and lease where you buy the car but lease the battery. Any Tesla dealer should be able to swap your leased battery at any time as many times as you please to one with larger range for a higher daily lease or to one with a shorter range with a lower daily lease. This business model will allow you to keep the lease cost for the battery at a minimum but still give you the flexibility to do the occasional long-trips where you need a 300 miles battery.
Note that this business model is different from the one by Better Place that is based on a county wide system of battery swapping stations only swapping short range batteries (100 miles). The advantage of the business model that is possible with Tesla’s Model S is that it does not require a country wide infrastructure of battery swapping stations but can use the battery swappers that the repair shops at the dealer will need to have in order to do repairs on the battery.
This is probably what ex-EV1 has in mind but is not allowed to tell. Just guessing ;-)
· EVNow · 1 year ago
@Steven One important thing to remember about Focus EV is that it is a conversion that brings its own compromises (like no real trunk).
@Tom I believe Nissan tested some of their older Li cars in a research facility near north pole. So, east coast shouldn't be a problem ;-)
As to reduction of range in winter - that will be a big issue. Nissan is bringing out a "Cold weather Spec" Leaf trim for colder states.
But, Volt is not doing much better in cold weather with all that active thermal management. The range is down to 25 or below.
Coming back on topic, if I was in a cold place I'd want more range - may be 150 miles, becuase that would correspong to 100 mile range in warmer places.
· Paul Scott (not verified) · 1 year ago
Good comments from all. My take on this, as an experienced EV driver, is that some people will opt for more range at a higher cost, and some will opt for 100 miles range at a lower cost. Amazing insight, I know. My mom raised me to think deep. :~)
It's not rocket science guys. The LEAF (full disclosure: I sell the LEAF) is an amazing car that will serve the driving needs of millions of Americans. Before we get that many on the road, there will be terrific competition from Ford, Mitsubishi, Tesla, Mercedes and many more. It's all good.
Let's keep in mind that we're not worried about competition from other plug-in cars. Our true enemy is ICE, and the evil men who control the flow of oil. All of our efforts should be directed toward getting as many ICE vehicles off the road as quickly as possible. Let's not get into a "tastes great - less filling" fight when the wolves have the house surrounded.
· Brad Berman · 1 year ago
@ex and Darell - Good point about theory vs. reality on a LEAF v. Focus Electric comparison. Yet, Nick is just returning from a Ford event where he drove the new Focus (ICE version). It's not a ton to go on, but between that experience and knowledge about the cars' relative systems, we can get the ball rolling with some notion for plug-in shoppers if they should at least hold off on a final decision about the LEAF until they can test drive both cars. Of course, all the LEAFs will be scooped up right away regardless.
To me, it's great news that we can start to compare an EV to and EV, apples to apples, rather than the 2010 (so long ago) debate about LEAF v. Volt, despite the broad differences between the two. I think the Focus and LEAF will stack up pretty close to each other, and will come down to a matter of taste. Wow, real choices for EV buyers!
· Ken Fry (not verified) · 1 year ago
@ abasile
"Instead, you have to rationalize the purchase out of a desire to "do the right thing" for energy independence, the environment, etc., or maybe just for fun."
Definitely. If you buy a Prius because you are a cheapskate, you've made a mistake: you should have purchased a Corolla or Civic, preferably used. You would need more than the car's life to make up the difference in price. At 15,000 miles per year, the difference between $1500 Civic fuel and $900 Prius fuel ($600 savings) makes the car price difference too large to amortize.
I have a new Civic, and it is a great car -- it does everything a car needs to do and has many comfort and convenience features that could only be found on luxury cars when I was a kid. When you get above the level of a Civic, you quickly get into territory where purchase decisions are made for numerous more-or-less irrational reasons (rather than strictly financial ones.) No one *needs* even a cheap Audi @ $40,000, or a $60,000 BMW, or a $105,000 Porsche Panamera. The cool factor of a Chevy Volt pretty well trumps all these, in my view, and as a result, it can be seen as a great deal (even without incentives.)
· dgpcolorado · 1 year ago
@ex-EV1 driver, Sorry for misinterpreting the point you were trying to make. If, as you suggest, the coming Tesla innovation leads to the mass market manufacturers scrambling to catch up, then that could be terrific. I hope that comes to pass.
Your thoughts about the Leaf vs. Focus EV seem dead-on to me. Since neither will fit my needs I am going to have to wait for second (third?) generation models anyway. Perhaps I will end up waiting so long that Tesla really will have an affordable car on the market and I could skip the major auto companies entirely. But now that there are actual EVs on the market, at last, it is getting harder to be patient. (Which may not make much sense to someone who went through the whole EV-1 travesty.)
@EVNow, You said: >Coming back on topic, if I was in a cold place I'd want more range - may be 150 miles, because that would correspond to 100 mile range in warmer places.< Exactly! Give me 150 miles so I can deal with the reduced range in Winter and I am satisfied. I'll even front another $5000 for the larger battery pack. But the car manufacturers have to start somewhere and it may be a few years yet before such options become widely available.
· ex-EV1 driver · 1 year ago
@dgpcolorado,
You're only patient because you haven't driven an electric. My advice: Don't do it. You'll be ruined for life. I was a normal guy, content to stop by the gas station every few days to get some more gas to guzzle. It was the only world I had ever known. Then the Gen2 EV1 came out with 120 miles of range. It met my commuting needs. I managed to convince my wife we should do it because it was the right thing (it cost about twice as much as any other car we'd ever owned). Once I started commuting in it every day and sailed by the gas stations selling gas for $4.50 per gallon, I realized I couldn't go back. My next step is documented in the movie "Who Killed the Electric Car". Then Tesla came out with their Roadster. We had to keep going despite the extremely high cost. It's an awesome car though!
I hope that someone gets some sense and starts offering EVs that will suffice for a broader market. 100 miles of LA-4 driving cycle range is barely usable for most heavy automobile users (I classify darelldd and most Rav4EV drivers as light automobile users). I can't make use of one except that we have a charging station at my office - which, by the way cost less to buy and install than the $5000 you offer to pay for a larger battery pack and will last a lot longer.
· dgpcolorado · 1 year ago
@ex-EV1 driver, Oh my! I'm afraid you may be right about getting spoiled by an EV experience. I was considering crossing the mountains next year to test drive the Focus EV in Denver; perhaps that isn't a good idea.
There isn't much I can do about charging stations out here in the boondocks. I asked about it at the Ford/Nissan dealer and was told they had no plans to install one (or to sell EVs, for that matter). I expect that this will be one of the last places in the country that will get them. Since my need for the longer range is 70 mile grocery shopping trips even in Winter, it isn't as if I could get a charger installed unless I could convince a store to do it. Or, perhaps, a friend who lives in the destination city (now there's a thought I hadn't considered...).
· abasile · 1 year ago
I probably should avoid driving a LEAF or Focus EV for a while for the same reason, because rationally I know that a 100 mile range won't really cut it for us...
@Ken Fry: I have to disagree about the Prius not paying for itself over its lifetime. It depends on the amount of driving you do, though. We are sharing our 2010 Prius with my wife's parents to help them reduce their gasoline consumption as well. We're headed for total annual miles north of 20K. Assuming 50mpg and $3.40/gal. (the price here), 20K miles on the Prius cost $1360 in gas. At 30mpg, 20K miles would be $2267 in gas. That's a savings of $907 per year. Give it a few years, and it'll have paid for itself. In our case, the timeframe would be even shorter since we bought a year-old 2010 Prius from Hertz "Rent to Buy" for $17,900. (Leaves more money for a pure EV when the time comes.)
· ex-EV1 driver · 1 year ago
@dgpcolorado,
If you've committed to $5000 (sorry to hold you to your words), you actually have quite a few options, including your friend's house. Odds are, your friend has 240 volts in his garage already so you could rig up an outlet for less than $50. You'll have to wait until J1772 mobile connectors are available too. Otherwise, you'd need to connect a true J1772 EVSE but $5000 would easily cover that.
Alternatively, you could actually donate a charger and installation to the city or shopping center for around $5000. You'd actually come out ahead if you donate it to the non-profit Electric Auto Association or Plug-In America and take the tax deduction for the donation.
If there is an RV campground, you can simply plug-in there (once you get that mobile connector) to charge when you're in town. The downside of this is that RV campgrounds are usually away from the major trading centers of towns so this might have limited practicality.
Or, as abasile is doing, you can just be responsible with your money today so that when an EV that does meet your needs becomes available (Tesla Model S?), you'll be better able to afford it.
· dgpcolorado · 1 year ago
@ex-EV1 driver, >If you've committed to $5000 (sorry to hold you to your words), you actually have quite a few options, including your friend's house. Odds are, your friend has 240 volts in his garage already so you could rig up an outlet for less than $50. You'll have to wait until J1772 mobile connectors are available too. Otherwise, you'd need to connect a true J1772 EVSE but $5000 would easily cover that.< It might be a little awkward to invite myself over to a friend's house just to charge up for awhile. But it's an intriguing idea nonetheless. (240V outlets are not found in garages here in the snowbelt, but that's just a quibble.)
>Alternatively, you could actually donate a charger and installation to the city or shopping center for around $5000. You'd actually come out ahead if you donate it to the non-profit Electric Auto Association or Plug-In America and take the tax deduction for the donation.< This strikes me as a great idea, although my income is too low for tax deductions to have much value. I thought of the idea of donating a charge station (or two, for a backup) to my favorite grocery store as I was making my previous post. You have definitely got me thinking "outside the box" now.
>Or, as abasile is doing, you can just be responsible with your money today so that when an EV that does meet your needs becomes available (Tesla Model S?), you'll be better able to afford it.< That implies that I'm being irresponsible with money now. People who know me well would tell you the opposite. I'm "poor" by the standards of many others because I chose a different course and retired at age 45, more than a decade ago. I get by by being thrifty, the same way I accumulated my nest egg in the first place. To continue to be a productive member of society I do large amounts of volunteer work. I am disinclined to move back to the big city and the stresses of the work-a-day world in order to afford neat toys like a Tesla. I would consider busting my budget for $30K EV, just as I've already done to install solar panels to power it. We all have to make choices and I've made mine.
Your suggestions have opened up options for me in a big way. Thank you very much!
· spicoli · 1 year ago
I want to own my battery pack on principle. For the same reason I dont like the idea of hydrogen fuel cell, battery swapping schemes are just one more way to build out ridiculous and unnecessary infrastructure and ultimately infringe on your freedom of mobility. Building networks of battery swapping stations or "hydrogen highway" projects are akin to swatting a fly with a sledgehammer. Battery technology that is in the lab today will more than take care of range over the next decade. Residential PV combined with EV ownership equals peace of mind, and more so during future commodities run-ups.
· spicoli · 1 year ago
I would add though that when fuel cell membranes can be made without precious metals they may find a great use in off grid power installations as a balancer, splitting water by day to store hydrogen for the night. As far as reforming natural gas to make hydrogen, that would be fine at the terminus of a pipeline to have a facility to bottle bottle hydrogen for special uses and natural gas fired power plants are welcome in my book. But creating as the new standard a distributed network of hydrogen filling stations that will in the end handcuff you financially to the same speculators that will be causing food riots again is not my idea of a good time. At least lithium as a commodity can weather short term swings as it sits in your vehicles battery bank for 7-10 years, residential pv will address the rest. The usual naysayers with their usual arguments against all of these things will within the decade lose their primary argument: cost vs savings. I'll admit that right now it's largely a matter of principle or personal desire to do and have these things but the numbers will crunch much differently in coming years and they will become believers.
· darelldd · 1 year ago
> I classify darelldd and most Rav4EV drivers as light automobile users <
I know you said "most" and most don't do this... but we certainly have a significant percentage of Rav4EV drivers who put 150,000 miles on the cars in six years or less. The first driver to reach 100,000 miles did it in 3.5 years.
I'm certainly proud to be a "light automobile user." It isn't because I don't go places. It's because I go those places without using an automobile. 130 miles just today, in fact.
· ex-EV1 driver · 1 year ago
@dgpcolorado,
I didn't say there were a lot of 240 volt outlets in garages, I said you could probably rig one up.
You're right that thinking out of the box is what is needed.
I also didn't intend to imply that you weren't being fiscally responsible, only that that is a good alternative if there don't appear to be other options right now. You may or may not already be being that way. Thats a good option for everyone. When there were no EVs available, I used to tell people that the car they were driving today was the greenest car on the planet and that they should keep driving it as long as they can, pay it off, and then start saving the payments for an EV. They're going to be expensive initially.
· ex-EV1 driver · 1 year ago
@darelldd,
I didn't mean to imply there was anything wrong with being a light auto user, in fact, I envy you.
I wanted to highlight that a solution that works for light users may not work for heavy users.
There are a few 100K Rav4EVs but there are also a lot around 50k miles after a decade. I do agree that the Leaf will work for most but many will have to be a bit creative to make it work.
· darelldd · 1 year ago
Ah... I see how my post might have sounded like I was somehow upset by the label. Not so! Just wanted to point out that while some folks don't drive much (regardless of vehicle type) - it isn't the car being a 100-mile EV that's holding many of them back. Some people just don't drive much... and/or purchased an EV as their third car. None of the retail Rav4EVs have been in driver's hands for a decade yet, though some are closing in on nine years. For every EV that's been driven only 50k in nine years, I can probably find a million gas cars with the same or fewer miles.
No idea why I'm going at this like a dog with a bone. I guess I just take a bit of exception to the implication that the EVs from the 90's aren't being driven very far - as far as they'd be driven if perhaps they had greater range. We have people putting 25k per year on these "100 mile" cars. When you say that most Rav4EV drivers (as compared to gas-car users I guess?) are light automobile users, I guess my experience doesn't match yours. Or maybe to put it another way - MOST automobile users are light users - which would make the point moot.
Regardless, we're in agreement that a solution that works for light users likely won't be the best for heavy users.
· ex-EV1 driver · 1 year ago
@darelldd,
I'd like to see statistics showing the percent of our oil (and related problems) are caused by light users -vs- heavy users. I've done a brief look at my wife's situation. She only commutes about 5 miles (walk, bike, or drive) each day. Whether she walks, bikes, drives the EV, the HCH, or even our (usually garaged) 18 mpg Xterra, she doesn't come anywhere close to consuming as much energy as I do with the EV. Likewise, a colleague of mine who lives about 5 miles from work did the math and showed the paltry energy savings he would get if he bought a Prius to commute in when he'd be using his 4-Runner for weekend hauling and visiting the grandkids, where he puts most of his miles in. Maybe an FEH or THH would be a better compromise but it would limit where he could go with the grandkids in the desert.
· abasile · 1 year ago
@spicoli and @ex: Believe me, I've made plenty of financial mistakes in my 20 years of adulthood. Thank God none of those mistakes has been "fatal". While my wife and I have grown to be more conservative with our money, by delaying purchases and seeking to minimize debt, we can always do better.
At this stage in the game, I do wonder if it's really the best use of money to purchase EVs for light use as second or third vehicles. If people have plenty of extra money and/or really, really want one, then sure. An EV would be a much better choice than a higher end ICE car. But personally, I find it hard to contemplate spending $30,000 on a second/third car if it's only going to be driven at most 6000 miles per year for whatever reason. I want to be able to purchase an EV for use as our primary car, hence the need for more range in our case. If someone other than an unproven Chinese company can produce a 200 mile EV for $35K before subsidies, that'll really open up the market!
· abasile · 1 year ago
I'm sorry, I meant to have @dgpcolorado in my above reference to finances. In any case, I can appreciate the choices DGP made in becoming financially independent at an early age. We should admire the kind of discipline it takes to do that.
· EVNow · 1 year ago
@abasile : Can you define "second/third car" ?
In the US 60% of the families have 2 or more cars. They just need to replace one a BEV and the other with a PHEV. We can save over 90% of gas usage.
We would also save a lot of energy given how inefficient ICE cars are. Also remember, the grid gets getting clearner in the future even as the oil gets dirtier.
· darelldd · 1 year ago
Similar comment as EVNow's. What defines the primary and secondary car? Our long-range car is only driven when we need long-range. Our "light use" EV is used the other 95% of the time - meaning every day. Our "light use" of EVs has added up to over 120,000 miles of pollution-free driving. We're like most US drivers - we don't need more than 100 miles of range very often - thus a "light use" vehicle is our primary vehicle. I fully understand that not everybody is like most.
· spicoli · 1 year ago
My brother and I have been talking a bit about this lately, why cant compressed air be used as a range extender? Seems simple and instead of Saudi or more probably Canadian crude we use a hydro-electric dam in Wenatchee WA or a coal fired plant in W. Virginia? What am I missing, how complicated would it be to have compressed air fed into a pump/turbine to spin a generator to seamlessly feed back to the battery at say a 25% state of charge? Thoughts? Battery technology would still march forward and play a bigger role in each successive model while the compressed air becomes less and less of a component until gone altogether.
· dgpcolorado · 1 year ago
@abasile, Thank you. It does take discipline and a certain single-mindedness to retire young. But now I can do want I want rather than what I must. And I get to live in a peaceful scenic place.
@ex-EV1 driver,
>When there were no EVs available, I used to tell people that the car they were driving today was the greenest car on the planet and that they should keep driving it as long as they can, pay it off, and then start saving the payments for an EV. They're going to be expensive initially.<
I agree. I did that until October when I hit a deer with my venerable VW Golf (25 years, 230,000+ miles, purchased new for $8600 cash). Now I have a hole in my garage I'd love to fill with an EV. The VW was supposed to hold me until the 2015 model year, by which time I figured there would be a lot of second and third generation EV choices [better make that "third and fourth" generation to keep darelldd happy ;-) ]. Much harder to wait now. My budget was built around a $15,000 car (I have a "car replacement fund" line item) so a $30K one is a stretch.
· ex-EV1 driver · 1 year ago
@dgpcolorado,
I understand that you may have a need now. We had that problem when my EV1 was taken away. We got the cheapest ICE I could find (I inherited my grandmother's 1991 Buick) and drove it for 4 years (tripling the miles on it) while not making any payments. When Tesla came along, we sucked it up and bought one. It helped a lot that we hadn't been making car payments for 4 years. That would suggest that if the car you want isn't available now, get a very cheap one that meets your needs, hopefully one that you can buy outright or pay off very quickly.
Just one option, of course.
· ex-EV1 driver · 1 year ago
@spicoli,
Let me try to sum up the problems with compressed air cars quickly. The topic has been discussed a lot before but apparently, it seems like there are forces trying to resurrect it:
1) Compressed air only contains a small fraction of the energy per weight of electricity. This is primarily because of the strength of a tank required to safely carry such high pressures. Therefore, in order to carry enough energy it would take a lot of weight.
2) Compressing air can't be done very efficiently. A lot of heat is given off as you compress the air. That heat represents wasted energy.
3) Every few years, someone comes up with the idea of a compressed air car and shows a few tiny concept cars that go very slowly for short distances (they are generally quite zippy but slow top speed) but, unfortunately, it just doesn't scale up to be a real car.
· spicoli · 1 year ago
@EV1, I remember the French air car many years ago and thats not quite what I meant. I meant that it would seem possible to augment an EV with compressed air tank to spin a generator to restock a battery for range extension. But what started my brother and myselfs conversation was a link he sent me for a company making a compressed air product that supposedly addresses the heat problem, here: http://www.engineair.com.au/
Sorry it's not clickable but please have a look, I'd love to hear what you think. Now for that carbon nano tube pressure tank...In all seriousness though, what about titanium or some type of alloy? Too expensive? I had thought that pound for pound a compressed air tank would by cheaper than just adding more battery. But I would want a battery and electric motors doing the actual work, compressed air simply being a means to recharge the battery on say a 200 mile trip without packing around another $7,000 worth of heavy batteries or a heavy ICE for that 5-10% of driving you may do that is more than 45 miles.
· abasile · 1 year ago
@DarellDD and @EVNow: I apologize for not being a bit clearer. I would define "light use" as low annual miles, as in ex-EV1's grandmother's Buick before he inherited it. :-) "Light use" does not necessarily correlate with the range of the vehicle; someone with a ~100 mile EV (like Tom M.) could still be a heavy user if their driving patterns fit within the range.
As for a "primary" car, I meant the one that accumulates the most miles per year, not necessarily the one with the longest range. When we finally purchase an EV, I would like our Prius to become a second/third car in terms of annual mileage.
· spicoli · 1 year ago
I'm with EV1, great advice on driving a sensible little used car and save the payments for an EV or PHEV. I've been milking my 99 Dodge Neon for about a decade, the interior is still perfect and only now is the paint starting to age, amazing! It is supposed to be a throwaway car and it wont die, which is good because hell or high water it will be our car until I can kick the tires on a domestic EV in the 30k range. It was paid for a decade ago and sips gas. My 85 K-5 Blazer is a typical mid 80's gas hog so it is almost never driven, unless I need to haul or tow or just want to get up into the mountains for fun. I've seen Microsoft millionairs driving Gremlins and Pacers, maybe they are now driving a Tesla S, who knows. We are finally here, almost and I for one am super exited and cant wait to start plugging in!
· ex-EV1 driver · 1 year ago
@spicoli,
The link (which was clickable) you've found is for a compressed air engine. I don't doubt that it works but the challenges I know of are in compressing the air and storing it.
The heat is lost in the compression of air. Look at an air compressor some time and you'll see cooling fins on it to shed all the heat caused by compressing air.
On the motor side, you're right that adding another pound of air costs nothing but adding additional structure to the tank to handle the extra pressure caused by squeezing in that extra air is expensive.
Some folks in the Formula One race world were looking at compressing air when slowing down, then using the compressed air to help accelerate again. This is an identical concept as regenerative braking. Flywheels have also been explored for similar reasons. As long as you don't need to store too much energy in compressed air, this probably works. The problems come when you need to drive a long way so you need to store a lot of energy as compressed air.
It may be cheaper but the weight gets you. Sure, 'space-age' materials such as composites and exotic metals may help but, so far, not enough.
The answer always seems to come back to adding more batteries or adding a chemical fuel (gas, diesel, natural gas, etc) engine as being the only feasible way to extend the range.
I never say never though.
· Anonymous (not verified) · 1 year ago
Most of the 'real' people I have talked to about electrics would like to use one for their daily commute activities and retain a gas vehicle for pleasure and long distance trips. I don't think the range is a big issue for these people if their commute fits comfortably in the 100 mile range.
If the price was to drop under 20,000 I would be interested in one.... as someone before mentioned the price point right now is set by the Prius.
· EVNow · 1 year ago
@Anonymous Similarly equipped Prius is about 28,000 and Leaf is 26,000 post tax credit. In CA it is just 21K. Yes, Leaf is cheaper than Prius.
@abasile : To me the primary car is the one I use most of the days - like 300 or more. That will be my Leaf once I get it next month. My wife's ICE will be our long drive car, which will continue to be her primary car until sometime in 2012 when we hope to replace it with a PHEV (may be Ford Energi ). See my blog post below on how we can save over 90% gas with this arrangement.
http://www.c-maxenergi.com/2011/01/ev-phev-cuts-gas-usage-by-over-90-wit...
· abasile · 1 year ago
@EVNow: I agree that the LEAF ends up being cheaper than a similarly equipped Prius. But that's if you care about the Prius being similarly equipped, which we don't. Our Prius II seems nice enough. Also, in California, you have to pay ~9% sales tax on the full purchase price before incentives, which is a big hit. I figured that the base LEAF would be about $24K net (out the door minus $12,500 in fed/state incentives).
Don't get me wrong. I would have much enjoyed buying a LEAF. It's just that I did the calculations (similar to yours, but for our circumstances) and found that if we can only replace one car, the Prius would allow us to reduce our overall gasoline usage more than owning a LEAF would. This is due to the fact that the LEAF range is insufficient for a great deal of our driving. That's the consequences of living in a semi-rural area. In your case, the LEAF is of greater benefit due to the average length of your trips being shorter. Next time we replace a car, we expect to purchase a longer-range EV, and of course keep the Prius for the longest trips. Everyone should follow your example and do their own calculations to ensure they make the most optimal choices.
· pat b (not verified) · 1 year ago
It seems to me, we should let the customers make these choices. Put a minimum range,say 50 miles
into the vehicle body, and allow the customer to buy some range extension packs that can be easily
removed.
Cell phones used to come with a narrow battery pack and they sold upgrade packs so you could
pick Slim or long life.
Why not do the same, let the customer decide on removing the rear seat to put in a big pack set.
· spicoli · 1 year ago
totaly!
· spicoli · 1 year ago
ok, with my new avatar I just had to do that, heh
· EVNow · 1 year ago
@abasile "That's the consequences of living in a semi-rural area."
That is the consequence of a world of cheap oil. Like most of American's lifestyle this will not be sustainable in a post peak oil world.
· abasile · 1 year ago
That's one of the reasons for electrifying our transportation, isn't it? So that when oil supplies become really constrained, we can still get around. I regard cars like the Prius and the Volt as temporary solutions (for some) while battery technology improves.
· Tony Stevens · 1 year ago
darelldd,
I know that I went on a rant the other day. However, what I was trying to say was that the car companies should already know that the a 300 mile range is what most non EV drivers would want. So, they should start with that range in mind. I was not talking about Range vs Price, I was talking strictly about range and car companies like GM not providing us with the very best EV they can make. Why did the 2nd Gen EV1 have a range of 120 miles and 10 years later with better battery technology, we have less range? It just does not add up.
Now I would like to give the Brammo a good long ride (10KhW) someday. Just like I would love to give the Leaf a 110+ drive, recharge with a fast charger and give it another 85+ mile drive. Then give it another fast charge and go on with the test. We have not seen that done with a Leaf, yet. The great thing about the Brammo is that there is not going to be a "California first" release. If you have the dough, you can have one wherever you live. That is the way you release a new product.
· Tony Stevens · 1 year ago
Also. Where is the response from the writer? I have another question for her. Why did you go to Ford to talk about range when they do not have an all BEV on the market? Tesla and Nissan are the only companies that matter is this question. Coda is a big question mark and is just another Ford "Profit before Consumer" company. Her article is the equivilent of asking the fattest cat about the mouse problem. All your article did was cause some ugly name calling here. Get to the heart of the matter by talking to the right people. Ford and GM are not going to have much to say for 2-5 years and by then they will be asking for another bailout.
· darelldd · 1 year ago
@Tony - agreed on most accounts, for sure. The whole range thing has driven me nuts. GM took back my EV1 and told me that Americans don't want cars with only 100 miles of range! Then they trot out the Volt with the selling feature that "most people will never have to burn gas since 40 miles is longer than the average commute in the US."
:sigh:
I haven't ridden a Brammo (sat on one!) but I've ridden a few of the E-bikes that are out there. WOW. This is the start of something great.
· abasile · 1 year ago
Thank you, Josie. Specifically, I would like to know when Nissan intends to offer the LEAF with a 150 mile range, possibly as an option. Of course, 200 miles would be even better. Perhaps sometime after beginning production in Smyrna? I have exactly the same question for Toyota about the upcoming RAV4 EV, as well as for Ford...
· EVNow · 1 year ago
@abasile "So that when oil supplies become really constrained, we can still get around."
Tue - but not if you have unsustainable long commutes, when a 100 mile range EV is not heavily usable. First we need to make our commutes smaller. Post peak oil will come faster than a 300 mile EV for $20K. Much faster.
@Tony Stevens · "However, what I was trying to say was that the car companies should already know that the a 300 mile range is what most non EV drivers would want."
Technology is not there today. 300 mile EV is not possible in under $30K EV. It wn't be for a long, long time (say 8-10 years).
BTW, consumers "want" all kinds of unobtaniums. They want fantastic health and gluttony at the same time. They think if you wish something hard enough it will happen. Sigh.
· EVNow · 1 year ago
@Josie Garthwaite
Interestingly Ford is keeping their card very close. They have not released even the most basic spec for their electric offerings - GM & Nissan had given out a lot of info at this time in their product lifecycle.
What is C-Max Energi's EV range, for eg. Is it 10,20,30,40 ?
· abasile · 1 year ago
@EVNow: Actually, I usually have no commute, as I work from home most of the time. On most days we hardly drive at all, or short distances. But the majority of our family of three drivers' ~25K total annual miles come from 100-250 mile roundtrip drives to LA, San Diego, etc., plus longer camping/desert trips here and there. A 150-200 mile EV would be great for our driving patterns, and I don't see us having to wait more than a few years, especially if business goes particularly well and we become willing to splurge on a Tesla Model S.
· spicoli · 1 year ago
Ok, for Josie, when talking with Ford would you be willing to ask them about graduated or modular battery's, like some sort of battery in series set up so that range can be bought and dropped in as the customer pleases? Maybe I buy 300 miles worth of battery packs, but during the week only have half of them plopped in there. Each one obviously shouldn't be heavier than a normal human being can lift without crazy effort. Maybe another customer knows for a fact that that this is his or her commuter vehicle and only wants half as many packs or, 150 miles range, or half of that. But to create such a huge issue for no logical reason (how hard would this have been for crying out loud) is incomprehensible to me. Of course, I am not an expert and I have to assume they are..I guess.
With this oversight (for lack of anything better to call it) they have even added a new phrase to the English language, "range anxiety" and of course now all the mainstream media outlets are parroting this phrase and the average person has become aware of this negative connotation surrounding EV's. Self sabotage again? I remember in the movie "Who killed the electric car" some guy was saying that he thought that a car company would sell you a car that ran on pig crap if they thought someone would buy it. Makes sense ya? So why let such a basic simple idea that I've heard so many people mention stand in the way of a bigger rollout of what would be a popular product. Call me silly, I don't get it.
· dgpcolorado · 1 year ago
@EVNow, >True - but not if you have unsustainable long commutes, when a 100 mile range EV is not heavily usable. First we need to make our commutes smaller. Post peak oil will come faster than a 300 mile EV for $20K. Much faster.<
I've been hearing about "Peak Oil" for well over a decade (and the concept is much older than that). It reminds me of the hydrogen car ("just 5 to 10 years away ... and always will be!"). Yes we probably will reach Peak Oil someday. But that day keeps getting pushed off as oil prices rise and give rise to deep water drilling and mining tar sands (at enormous environmental costs) because harder to reach oil becomes economically viable.
I've been in favor of a significant gas tax — to try to price-in some of the external costs of oil consumption — since the '70s oil embargoes. But it is politically impossible in the USA because we as a people are too short-sighted and the issue is too easy for demagogues to exploit.
Yes, suburban, ex-urban, and outright rural living is dependent on cheap transportation costs. It is much more efficient to live in urban rabbit-warrens with easy access to public transportation. However, the advent of EVs now makes even inefficient sprawl practical because it will be possible to get around without using any oil at all.
If you are bound and determined to make sprawl go away you might want to hope that EVs flop so that we remain subject to ever-higher oil prices. As someone who chooses to live in a remote rural location — it is still a free country, after all — the advent of EVs is just what I've been hoping and planning for all these years.
· spicoli · 1 year ago
@ dgpColorado, your last sentence echoes my sentiment exactly. I love your use of the word "rabbit warren", awsome! I've done the rabbit warren thing too and ya, it's nice in it's own way. Going out for a night on foot, alittle pub crawl without the need for a car, coffee shops, bookstores, shopping, work all at your fingertips. But when you want to shoot skeet, pee off your deck or howl at the moon for no reason country living is it. I'm in planning stages but an off-grid PV installation and a EV or PHEV is where it's at for me. I might even grow a ponytail and start an organic garden heh. Have a good day guys!
· dgpcolorado · 1 year ago
@spicoli, Yes, you get it!
· abasile · 1 year ago
We enjoyed city living for a time. But we're more interested in immediate trail access (for hiking, mtn. biking, running, backcountry skiing, etc.) than in urban culture, etc. And you can't call where we live "sprawl"; our neighborhood (which started out as mountain vacation cabins) has been here since the 1920s. This is the 21st century. We are supposed to be able to use technology (Internet, EVs, PV, etc.) to "untether" ourselves to some degree. (I'm no Luddite.)
· EVNow · 1 year ago
@dgpcolorado "However, the advent of EVs now makes even inefficient sprawl practical because it will be possible to get around without using any oil at all."
Not really - given the issues we are talking about in this "thread". Also checkout the Leaf forum - for a large number of SoCal residents apparently Leaf is at the edge of usability. Ofcourse we won't be replacing the 350 million ICE cars anytime soon with EVs.
As to when peak oil actually happens, we won't know, except in the rearview mirror. But the production has been stagnant in the last 6 years even with steeply increased prices. In anycase, it is not the absolute peak that matters rather than the fact that as China and other countries increase their demand, they will not be met at current prices. So we are looking at a decade of fluctuating prices, stagnant or declining economy - and possibly gas rationing. Anyway, comparing to PO with H2 is rather silly.
· dgpcolorado · 1 year ago
@EVNow, >Not really - given the issues we are talking about in this "thread". Also checkout the Leaf forum - for a large number of SoCal residents apparently Leaf is at the edge of usability.<
You seem to be assuming that the current 100 mile nominal range EVs are the limit for the foreseeable future. I don't buy it. The current EVs are the first baby steps and I expect the offerings to advance in range options rapidly. Do you really think I am wrong about that?
>Of course we won't be replacing the 350 million ICE cars anytime soon with EVs.< True enough. But if high oil prices come to pass, the changeover to EVs (and PHEVs) could be accelerated. But it will take some time before there are enough to make much difference in oil usage, so your point is well taken.
It may be some time before a $20K EV with a 150 mile nominal range happens, if it ever does (I doubt it, at least in this country). But if your fears about Peak Oil, plus massive increased usage from China and India, come to pass, a $30K car with 150+ mile range that uses no gasoline may start to look very good. And I would expect such a car on the market in four or five years at the outside.
Meanwhile, as "ex-EV1 driver" and I discussed at some length above, there are options to be considered even for the current short range EVs, such as charging at one's destination. It isn't as convenient a solution as having a longer range EV, but it would work.
>So we are looking at a decade of fluctuating prices, stagnant or declining economy - and possibly gas rationing.< A rather gloomy forecast!
"Fluctuating prices". That seems likely. High gas prices would increase the appeal of EVs and that strikes me as a good thing.
"stagnant or declining economy" That is certainly possible and I can think of a number of scenarios that could cause it to come to pass. But long experience in economics and investing make me think that it is unlikely.
"and possibly gas rationing". Again, I can think of scenarios which could cause that to come to pass, such as a war with Iran (just what we need: another war...). Gas rationing would make EVs look rather attractive though.
The next few years should be interesting.
· darelldd · 1 year ago
> The current EVs are the first baby steps <
Annoying as it is... I have to say it again: The current EVs are NOT the first baby steps. We should not forget what happened over ten years ago. My family is still driving one of those EVs that was designed for the 1996 model year. The current batch of EVs is not the first generation of EV, and if anything is the *second* set of baby steps.
Sorry to be the thorn that won't go away. ;)
· spicoli · 1 year ago
I would not worry about what is being advertised as "peak oil". There is an incredible amount of oil out there, I almost wish it were not true. Just stick to the idea of liberating yourself and helping the environment...if thats your thing. We are on the cusp of some really cool things. Production vs demand...yup, that's an issue.
· spicoli · 1 year ago
@darelldd, Nothing annoying about that dude, the cards fall where they may, where the truth lies. In the case of EV's as the EV1 demonstrated, peopled loved them and ya...they "worked". The fact that they "worked" in 1996 is something that illustrates the need to educate the general public about the viability of electric vehicles. There seems to be a political divide in America that disallows the productive dissemination of ideas with regard to future transport. We may have different thoughts and goals but I think we share a general interest in energy....sanity..ya?
· darelldd · 1 year ago
Solidarity, dood.
· spicoli · 1 year ago
Right arm my solid brother, right arm.
· dgpcolorado · 1 year ago
@"thorn", Is it true that the NiMH version of the EV1 had a 120 mile nominal range? If so, aren't the Leaf and coming Focus EV something of a regression? The baby fell down and is trying to get up...
· EVNow · 1 year ago
@spicoli · "I would not worry about what is being advertised as "peak oil". There is an incredible amount of oil out there, I almost wish it were not true."
I don't think you understand peak oil. PO doesn't mean the oil is finished.
@darelldd The current EVs are NOT the first baby steps.
Definitely not. There have been many attempts at EVs before in modern times. But in terms of mass assembly line production - these are early days. Nissan is laready manufacturing more Leafs a month than all EVs sold/leased in CA last decade. And people are cribbing abut the slow ramp up.
· darelldd · 1 year ago
@dgpcolorado - The deal is... we can make longer-range EVs. (Tesla Roadster, anybody?) And this whole thread is about how that needs to be ballanced with cost (Tesla Roadster, anybody?). The Leaf could have gone farther than it does. Would it have sold as well at $45,000? So yes, it is a bit of range regression by definition. But mostly it is the car companies trying to hit the sweet spot of performance, range and cost. Nissan didn't want to come to market with an expensive car, or they would have heard nothing more than what most people first say when they hear the price of the Roadster.
Enjoy this now, because you won't often see me defending corporate automotive decisions!
· spicoli · 1 year ago
Um..every time you gas up I make another mortgage payment so...ya, I think I understand the oil markets....
· dgpcolorado · 1 year ago
@darelldd, Oh I agree about Nissan (and Ford) trying to balance range and cost with their launch offerings.
The point I had been trying to make with my comment wasn't that the offerings were poor, quite the contrary. Rather it was that I expect longer range versions to be offered soon. Perhaps even in the next model year (I can hope). So, those who dismiss current offerings as being impractical for beginning to wean us off oil, and unlikely to be adopted by many car buyers, should wait a year or two or three and see what's available then.
Perhaps I'm dead wrong about that and five years from now affordable EVs will still only have a 100 mile nominal range. In that case the option of charging at one's destination can expand that range somewhat.
· EricZ (not verified) · 1 year ago
And what happens when (like this week) there are blackouts across the US - better have a second gas-powered vehicle during the winter when there is NO SUN and NO ELECTRICITY?
Even that is iffy - I was low on gas, and power was out at home, so went to fill up at local station - they were open and had power (must've had backup generators), but fuel was pumping at a rate of about one gallon per 2 MINUTES. I must've sat there for a good HALF HOUR to get a full tank of gas. Now I don't know what that was all about (and I watched the other pumps - it wasn't just mine), but if that were to happen on a mass scale - WHOA! I'll tell you right now, I'm not bicycling 20 miles to work in 14 degree weather! That showed me for the first time in my life how dependent we are on our "necessities" of electricity and gas (and solar) - especially in winter. Scary stuff. Good thing I live in the southern US where there are only a few days a year like this.
No electric car for me. We need to work on HHO power, or maybe natural gas or liquid propane. Or Mr. Fusion Home Energy Reactor like the DeLorean had in Back to the Future! :)
Anyways... just kinda ranting a bit. Have a great day!
· Tom Moloughney · 1 year ago
Eric, Don't worry nobody is going to force you to buy an electric car. But seriously, do you worry about mass blackouts across the US? You know you don't necessarily need to recharge every single day. You said you commute 20 miles to work so you'd be good for at least two days with a 100 mile BEV and you could probably push it to three if you just drove a little slower. If the power is out for more than three days (That's never happened to me in the 43 years I've been alive) then we have bigger problems than getting to work.
I happen to have a backup home generator that will charge my EV in the case of a power failure but even though I've had power outages, I've never needed to charge off the generator yet. You were definitely lucky to find a gas station that had a generator. I don't know of any in my area that do. I remember a few years ago driving around from station to station to find one open for my wife's car during a power outage. It didn't take long, but I had to find one that wasn't involved in the outage. All of the stations effected were closed.
Nothing's perfect, until we find the key to perpetual motion, that is.
· darelldd · 1 year ago
As Tom points out, and you found out - when there's no power, you often can't get gasoline either. In the end, it turns out that sometimes stuff happens, and you're stuck - doesnt' matter what type of car you're driving. What if a sparkplug cracks? The oil pan leaks and drains the crank case? A wheel falls off? Your child gets sick? There's a 40-car pileup on the only freeway that goes where you're going? Well, you're going to be late for work at best. It happens. We deal with it.
In over ten years, there hasn't been a day when my EV hasn't started up to take me where I want to do. I can't say the same for our gas car... or the neithbor's gas cars that I've helped to jump.
· SageBrush · 1 year ago
I find it amusing that most people try to estimate their required EV range by thinking about long drives, while I do almost the opposite because I am most concerned with less than 100% use of the battery every day. I suppose part of difference is my frugality, and ability to keep an ICE car (Prius) as a back-up for EV incompatible use.
· spicoli · 1 year ago
EricZ, I am amazed at the number of different ways people come up with to try and disparage EV's. Power outages? Really? Have you ever driven an EV or honestly researched and crunched the numbers for actual expected pollution and or the economics of driving an EV? I remember watching a community meeting discussing a light rail project in Honolulu a few years back and there was this supposed local at the podium spewing verbal diarea about how light rail would destroy the city and indeed mankind (maybe even the universe and your first born too). What struck me beyond his robotic delivery was the super thick New Jersey accent, it was like the ultimate thug accent. I saw the same thing at a press conference for a "tribal" casino grand opening with some guy named Luigi espousing the virtues of the new casino for "our" tribe. I wanted to vomit.
· abasile · 1 year ago
@spicoli: You wonder why not all of the attention attracted by EVs is positive. The bottom line is that EVs threaten entire industries, including ICE manufacturers, parts suppliers, repair shops, etc., and ultimately, the oil industry. Why else would Chevron want to control the patent on the use of NiMH batteries in EVs? What are auto repair shops and dealerships going to do when cars require much less maintenance than they do now? (But don't worry; I think your job in the oil industry is going to be safe for quite a while yet.)
Back to the original topic, given that more range costs more money, how much range is generally worth paying for? I would say enough such that the EV can be used for most (but not all) of the miles one drives. 100 miles of range thus seems like a good trade-off for most people, who'd likely prefer to see EV price reductions as batteries improve. Five years from now, I wouldn't be surprised if EV base models still have 100 miles of range, with options to pay more if greater range is desired.
· spicoli · 1 year ago
@ abasile, I am completely confounded as to why various battery packs (ie ranges) are not being made available to EV customers to tailor the car to the buyer. I mean really, I don't even have to feel bad for armchair quarterbacking on this one as far as engineering goes, this is NOT complicated stuff. If you wanted to slow down rollout and adoption of EV's not offering different cost and range options is a great way to do it.
As for that little Jewish couple that were featured on the movie "Who killed the electric car" if they weren't so dam cute together I could have reached into the tv set and strangled them for supposedly not knowing what was happening to the technology they sold for that battery. And yes you are right that fossil fuels are not going anywhere for a very long time, including into the manufacturing of this keyboard I'm typing on and the tires the EV's we are typing about roll around on...
· abasile · 1 year ago
@spicoli: Right now Nissan is able to sell every 100-mile EV they manufacture (likewise with the Volt), so I don't think the lack of range options is going to slow adoption for a while yet. But yes, within the next few years, I'd expect carmakers to start supporting multiple range options. Tesla already does.
· spicoli · 1 year ago
Yes that is true, and has been for over a decade that there is and has been a strong market for EV's. Maybe not a mass market but a small enthusiastic market nonetheless. I have been wanting one for that long and now that one is "available" I am still waiting. Waiting for a domestic product with the right attributes and that will for me be the 2nd year Focus EV or the Focus plug in hybrid. I have to admit too, I'm shallow, when it comes to the LEAF's body style I just can't do it. Maybe if the windows were tinted blacker than black so no one I knew would see me (just kidding...kinda).
I have been watching Phoenix Motorcars as well but...well you know. I'm not sure how domestic that purchase would really be though, with a Korean body and it appears they have been at least partially acquired by a middle Eastern concern, must not have been doing to well with the fleet sales, who knows. I like their light truck, make it four wheel and I would buy it. I love Tesla, can't wait for a slightly less sexy sedan in the $25,000 range from them. I do want to reward Ford though, again for mostly good behavior the last few years.
· abasile · 1 year ago
Buying the current LEAF, made in Japan as it is, is in some sense a show of support for domestic automaking. Both Nissan and the federal government (via loan guarantees) have made a huge commitment to manufacturing LEAFs in Tennessee. By 2013, nearly all LEAFs sold in America should be domestically produced. If I go ahead and purchase the Japan-produced LEAF that I have ordered, I am helping to send the message that there is an American market for this car, further vindicating Nissan's decision to employ American workers and build the LEAF here.
I know that doesn't help you with the styling, though.
· spicoli · 1 year ago
There is an entertaining video of a LEAF test drive, here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIKp0NKXyuk
In the video someone slips in a comment about American vs Japanese quality and it appears to go right over the head of the temp service recruit who was collecting tickets at a concert the day before and probably raking a lawn the day before that, meaning dose not know or care about EV's in the slightest, not that that matters but it is funny. The Japanese are classy intelligent people who care alot about reputation and I have never had a problem with a Japanese product, even ones manufactured in Thailand under Japanese guidance. And at the risk of offending someone I must say that at a Nissan plant in Tennessee I dought you have overweight union sloths punching in and lackadaisicaly sluffing around the factory floor for $40 an hour. Ok, I'll admit I know nothing about their wages or whether or not they "sluff" around a factory floor, but I do know that when I slam the door on my GM products an appointment or handle or something will usually fall off.
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